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美国:木屑颗粒、燃料乙醇和生物柴油出口分析 Sizing Them Up

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2017-04-21  来源:全球先进生物能源资讯  浏览次数:49
 

木屑颗粒、燃料乙醇和生物柴油的出口数据显示,美国生产商对出口市场的依赖程度不同。

A close look at export data for wood pellets, fuel ethanol and biodiesel reveals a varying reliance on export markets for U.S. Producers.

 

自2012年以来,美国生产的木屑颗粒、乙醇和生物柴油的综合出口值一直在30亿美元左右,2016年可能是超过这一里程碑的一年。现在的木屑颗粒和燃料乙醇出口数量达到高峰,这三个行业都在关注国外市场,视其为大幅增长业务的手段。

The combined export value of wood pellets, ethanol and biodiesel for U.S. producers has flirted with $3 billion since 2012, and depending upon how the final numbers shake out for last year, 2016 may very well be the year this milestone is surpassed. For both wood pellets and fuel ethanol, export numbers have never been higher than they are right now, and all three sectors are eyeing foreign markets as a means to significantly grow their businesses. 

 

相同数据的分析揭示了关键和信息差异。虽然国外市场是燃料乙醇和生物柴油生产商整体市场形势的重要组成部分,但出口占年产量不到10%,这样看来,美国的木屑颗粒生产量严重依赖国外市场。
An analysis of the same data reveals key and informative differences. While foreign markets are an important part of the overall market picture for fuel ethanol and biodiesel producers, exports account for less than 10 percent  of annual production while, from a volumetric perspective, wood pellet production in the U.S. is heavily reliant on foreign markets.

 

现在的问题是,特朗普政府对这个行业的出口机会有什么影响呢?

Now, the looming question is, what impact will a Trump administration, which campaigned on a promise to revisit the nation’s trade agreements, have on the export opportunities for each of these industries?

 

1

全球市场的领先者
Global Market Leaders

在燃料乙醇和木屑颗粒中,美国拥有最大的生产能力,占全球出口市场的最大份额。在这两种情况下,美国出口大幅度超过最接近的竞争对手。美国生产的木屑颗粒出口量超过400万吨,而加拿大出口量尚未超过200万吨。巴西是世界第二大燃料乙醇生产国,而且每年的生产和出口量也有所不同,其2015年出口量约为美国的一半。

In both the fuel ethanol and wood pellet categories, the U.S. can boast the largest production capacity and the largest share of the global export market. In both cases, U.S. exports outstrip the closest competitor by a wide margin. Wood pellet export volumes for U.S. producers were well over 4 million tons, while Canada has yet to surpass 2 million tons of exports. Brazil is the world’s second leading producer of fuel ethanol, and while production and export volumes there vary from year to year, in 2015, its export volumes were about half of what U.S. producers achieved. Additionally, Brazil is a prominent market for U.S. ethanol producers taking over 100 million gallons in 2015. 

 

木屑颗粒行业与燃料乙醇行业的不同之处在于,就其规模和全球市场份额而言,其平均水平要高出许多。估计将全球木屑颗粒市场,无论是热能还是电力生产,约2800万吨,欧盟是最大的需求中心。作为世界上最大的生产国,美国满足全年总需求量的五分之一。包括瑞典、奥地利和德国在内的国家 - 在全球市场上不太重要- 生产和消费大量的木屑颗粒。仅瑞典每年生产近200万吨,但在国内消耗绝大部分。
The wood pellet industry differs from the fuel ethanol industry in that there are far more global producers of significance, and there is much more parity among them in terms of their size and share of the global market. Estimates place the global market for wood pellets, whether or heat or power production, at roughly 28 million metric tons, the largest demand center being the European Union. As the world’s largest producer, the U.S. satisfies perhaps one-fifth of the total annual demand. Countries including Sweden, Austria and Germany—while less significant in the global marketplace—produce and consume significant quantities of wood pellets. Sweden alone produces nearly 2 million tons each year but consumes the vast majority of that volume domestically. 

 

燃料乙醇行业由美国生产商主导。美国的生产能力是竞争对手巴西的两倍,而这两个国家的联合生产能力占全球装机容量的85%。美国燃料乙醇产量比全球其他国家加起来多40亿加仑。在2015年,继美国和巴西之后的燃料乙醇出口国是法国,出口额超过2亿加仑,而巴西和美国的出口额分别为近5亿加仑和超过8亿加仑。
The fuel ethanol industry is dominated by U.S. producers. Production capacity in the U.S. is double that of Brazil, its closest competitor, and together these two represent 85 percent of installed production capacity worldwide. U.S. fuel ethanol producers can produce 4 billion more gallons than the rest of the world combined. In 2015, the single largest exporter of fuel ethanol after the U.S. and Brazil was France, which exported just over 200 million gallons, compared to nearly 500 million and over 800 million gallons of exports for Brazil and the U.S., respectively.

 

美国生物柴油生产商正在面临比木屑颗粒和燃料乙醇更强劲的全球竞争。2015年,美国出口量落后于荷兰、德国、阿根廷、西班牙和印度尼西亚。荷兰和德国在生物柴油方面表现强劲,2015年从生物柴油中获得了超过10亿美元的收入。美国生产商在2015年出口近9000万加仑,价值超过2.5亿美元。
U.S. biodiesel producers are facing much stiffer global competition than their wood pellet and fuel ethanol counterparts. In 2015, the U.S. trailed the Netherlands, Germany, Argentina, Spain and Indonesia in exported volumes. The Netherlands and Germany both do robust export business in biodiesel, and each of them surpassed $1 billion in revenues from biodiesel in 2015. U.S. producers exported nearly 90 million gallons in 2015, worth more than $250 million dollars.

 

2

经济依赖

Economic Dependence

木屑颗粒、燃料乙醇和生物柴油出口之间存在一些关键差异。木屑颗粒和生物柴油的出口在很大程度上取决于一个买家 - 英国的木屑颗粒和加拿大的生物柴油。2015年,向英国出货的木屑颗粒占出口总值的85%,而加拿大占生物柴油出口额的90%以上。

An examination of where wood pellet, fuel ethanol and biodiesel exports go also reveals some key differences between the categories. Exports for both wood pellets and biodiesel are largely dependent on one buyer—the U.K. for wood pellets, and Canada for biodiesel. In 2015, shipments of wood pellets to the U.K. generated 85 percent of the total export value, while Canada represented over 90 percent of the export value for biodiesel producers. 


根据可再生燃料协会(Renewable Fuels Association)的数据,燃料乙醇出口市场分布更加广泛,外国买家最多,占美国出口额的25%。 50多个不同的国家接受了美国的乙醇出口,巴西和中国两国都紧随其后。然而,在2017年行业前景中,RFA指出,中国最近对美国乙醇进口关税上涨,该协会预计将大幅遏制对中国的出口。
The fuel ethanol export market is far more distributed, with the largest foreign buyer, Canada, representing just 25 percent of U.S. exports, according to data from the Renewable Fuels Association. Over 50 different countries received fuel ethanol exports from the U.S., and Brazil and China both closely followed Canada. In its 2017 industry outlook, however, the RFA noted that China has recently raised import duties on U.S. ethanol, and the association expected that this would “sharply curtail exports to that nation.”


木屑颗粒出口市场与生物柴油和燃料乙醇不同,出口市场不仅非常依赖一个国家,而且在很大程度上取决于该国内的一个设施。目前,交付给英国港口的绝大多数木屑颗粒将用于Drax发电厂燃烧。这个发电厂最初设计是用于燃烧煤炭的,能够生产近4000兆瓦的功率。Drax的三台机组已经转化为仅燃烧木屑颗粒,这些锅炉的木屑颗粒年需求量超过600万吨。全球颗粒市场的增长以及美国木屑颗粒出口与Drax的转换锅炉都紧密相关。这一快速转型引发了对北美生产能力以及对美国和英国的港口基础设施投资。另外Lynemouth发电厂也正在进行转换。虽然显着小于Drax,但Lynemouth每年仍将需要超过150万吨木屑颗粒,预计英国将成为最大的木屑颗粒进口国。
The wood pellet export market is different from both biodiesel and fuel ethanol, in that not only is the export market quite reliant on one country, it is also largely dependent upon one facility inside of that country. For now, the overwhelming majority of wood pellets delivered to the ports in the U.K. will be burned at the Drax Power Station. The power station, initially designed to burn exclusively coal, is capable of producing nearly 4,000 MW of power. Three of Drax’s units have been converted to burn wood pellets only, and the annual demand from those boilers surpasses 6 million tons of wood pellets. The growth of the global pellet market, as well as U.S. wood pellet exports, tightly correlate with each of Drax’s converted boilers coming online. This rapid conversion sparked investment in both production capacity in North America, and port infrastructure in the U.S. and the U.K. Drax will soon be joined by another facility in the U.K., as the efforts to convert the Lynemouth power station are underway. While significantly smaller than Drax, Lynemouth will still require more than 1.5 million tons of wood pellets annually, likely cementing the U.K. as the largest importer of wood pellets well into the foreseeable future. 

 

在2015年美元走强之前,美国生产商着眼于现货市场并获得了出口机会。意大利是欧洲最大的住宅供暖木屑颗粒进口国,2012-2014年期间,美国购买了超过4000万美元的木屑颗粒,但由于美元兑欧元走强,销售额大幅下滑至50万美元以下。
Prior to a strengthening dollar in 2015, U.S. producers were eyeing and winning pellet export opportunities on the spot market. Italy, Europe’s largest importer of wood pellets for residential heating, bought over $40 million worth of U.S. pellets between 2012 and 2014, but sales plummeted to below $500,000 in as the dollar strengthened against the euro. 

 

3

竞争对手

Race for Second

目前,美国和加拿大在全球木屑颗粒出口中排名前二。然而,从2015年的出口数据显示,强劲的竞争不断出现,特别是来自波罗的海国家,如拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚。2015年拉脱维亚出口量几乎超过加拿大,出口量达160万吨。自2012年以来,拉脱维亚出口增长强劲,当时出口量尚未突破100万吨。此后,拉脱维亚每年增加出口总额约25万吨。同样,爱沙尼亚自2012年以来,它的颗粒出口业务翻了一番,拉脱维亚已经坚定地巩固了波罗的海在欧洲市场的地位。2012年以来,仅在英国,拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚将其颗粒业务增长了近10倍,当时他们向该国出口了8万吨。2015年,联合总量达65万吨。

For now, the U.S. and Canada occupy the top two spots in global wood pellet exports. Export data from 2015 suggests, however, that strong competition continues to emerge, particularly from Baltic nations like Latvia and Estonia. In 2015, Latvia nearly surpassed Canada in exported volumes with 1.6 million tons exported. Latvia has posted strong export growth since 2012, when its export volumes had not yet exceeded 1 million tons. Since then, Latvia has added about 250,000 tons to its export total each year. Similarly, Estonia has doubled it pellet export business since 2012, and with Latvia, has firmly cemented the Baltics as a formidable presence in the European marketplace. In the U.K. alone, Latvia and Estonia have grown their pellet business nearly 10-fold since 2012 when they exported just over 80,000 tons to the country. In 2015, their combined volumes exceeded 650,000 tons. 

 

2015年俄罗斯出口量下降,不足百万吨。俄罗斯拥有世界上最大的木纤维库存,原料可以与加拿大和美国竞争匹敌,但木屑颗粒行业受限于国家地域辽阔和基础设施。在西伯利亚生产的颗粒距离圣彼得堡附近的港口数千英里远。另外,一些颗粒购买国表示不愿意与俄罗斯生产商开展业务,而在2015年,全球最大买家英国,只进口俄罗斯1.2万吨的颗粒。2015年俄罗斯颗粒最大的买家是丹麦和瑞典,分别为38万吨和15万吨。
Russian export volumes fell immediately between Latvia and Estonia in 2015, just missing the million ton threshold. Home to the world’s largest inventory of wood fiber, Russia has the feedstock available to compete with both Canada and the U.S., but its wood pellet industry is constrained by the country’s vastness and limited infrastructure. Pellets produced in Siberia are thousands of miles from ports near St. Petersburg. Additionally, some pellet-buying countries have shown a reluctance to do business with Russian producers,  and in 2015, the U.K., the world’s largest single buyer, took just 12,000 tons of pellets from Russia, barely enough to fill a handy-sized cargo vessel. The largest buyers of Russian pellets in 2015 were Denmark and Sweden, taking 380,000 and 150,000 tons, respectively.


最后,越南已跻身于全球舞台,扰乱了韩国市场,加拿大生产商多年来一直在关注韩国市场。2014年越南向韩国的出口量大增,接近60万吨。2013年仅为13万吨。2015年略有下降,但仍在50万吨以上。目前,韩国的买家不愿意进行长期的出货合同,而是采用投标书。这种做法限制了越南超低成本生产者的参与。招标通常以低于加拿大和美国生产者的生产成本的每吨价格填补。加拿大对韩国的出口在2014年达到了15万吨的高峰。次年,下降到仅5万吨,2016年似乎已经达到了同样的水平。
Finally, Vietnam has elbowed its way onto the global scene, and has been very disruptive in South Korea, a market Canadian producers have been eyeing for years. Pellet export volumes out of Vietnam and into South Korea ballooned in 2014 to nearly 600,000 tons from just 130,000 in 2013. Volumes in 2015 were down slightly, but remained above 500,000 tons for the year. For now, South Korean buyers are unwilling to enter into long-term pellet offtake contracts, and instead are utilizing tenders. This approach has essentially limited involvement in the South Korean market to ultralow-cost producers in Vietnam. The industry inside that country is dominated by small producers who convert residuals from furniture manufacturing into volumes that are then aggregated by brokers, who fill empty containers bound for return to South Korea. Tenders are often filled at per-ton prices that are lower than the cost of production for Canadian and U.S. producers. Canadian exports to South Korea reached their peak in 2014 at 150,000 tons. The following year, volumes fell to just 50,000 tons, and 2016 appears to have finished at about the same volume.

 

4

着眼亚洲市场
All Eyes on Asia

北美颗粒、燃料乙醇和生物柴油生产商都关注着人口众多和经济发展迅速的亚洲市场。在某些情况下,单靠生活水平不断提高创造了需求机会。在其他情况下,像日本有气候目标的国家也提供了机会。

North American pellet, fuel ethanol and biodiesel producers alike all covet the promise of incredible market growth offered by the huge populations and rapidly expanding economies across Asia. In some instances, the growing standard of living alone creates a demand opportunity. In other instances, countries with aggressive climate goals like Japan offer opportunity. 

 

中国已经是美国乙醇生产商的重要贸易伙伴,在2016年观察量达到1.76亿加仑。然而,由于中国乙醇进口关税上涨,行业预测员预计2017年将大幅减少。
China is already an important trade partner for U.S. ethanol producers, who watched volumes balloon to 176 million gallons in 2016. However, industry forecasters anticipate dramatically lower volumes in 2017, as a consequence of China’s increased import tariffs for ethanol.

 

对于加拿大的木屑颗粒生产商来说,2016年终于盼来日益壮大的日本市场。2012年,加拿大到日本的颗粒超过10万吨,但去年下降到10万吨以下,当时该国出口近275000吨。
For wood pellet producers in Canada, 2016 offered hope that the beginnings of a strong and growing Japanese market may finally have arrived. In 2012, pellet volumes from Canada to Japan exceeded 100,000 tons, but retreated to well-below 100,000 until last year, when the country shipped nearly 275,000 tons. There is hope that a period of sustained growth will follow. For now, U.S. producers are on the outside looking in, with regard to Japan delivering just a couple of hundred tons, likely specialty barbeque pellets, into the country.

 

虽然亚洲发展潜力很大,但存在现有和潜在的竞争对手。加拿大的生产者知道一个区域竞争对手几乎可以摧毁一个新市场。然而,现在呢,日本的买家还是喜欢加拿大的颗粒,而那些生产者希望会持续增长,最终就像曾经对韩国的预期。

While Asia offers great promise, the region also has existing and potential competitors in every category. Canadian producers know all too well how a regional competitor can turn a promising new market into disappointment almost overnight. For now, though, Japanese buyers have shown a preference for Canadian pellets, and producers there are hopeful it will continue to grow, and ultimately resemble the market they once thought South Korea would provide.

 

最后,支持这些可再生燃料商品出口市场发展的是外国政府的能源和环境政策或这些国家在美国实行的贸易协定。
Finally, underpinning many of the foreign opportunities for these renewable fuel commodities are the energy and environmental policies of foreign governments or the trade agreements those countries have in place in the U.S.  

 

另一面是美国木屑生产商的出口市场。工业市场不仅完全依赖出口,而且现在几乎完全依赖于一个国家的需求,也是一个真正的买家。英国脱碳政策对美国工业颗粒行业的影响也是未知的。
The other side of that same coin is the export market for U.S. wood pellet producers. Not only is the industrial market completely reliant on exports, for now, it is nearly total reliant on demand from one country, and one real buyer within that country. The consequences of a retreat from the U.K. decarbonization policies that created the industrial pellet industry in the U.S. would be dramatic. 


令人惊讶的是,致力于保护和发展木屑颗粒、燃料乙醇和生物柴油市场的行业协会将继续推动新市场,希望为其生产者建立和发展新的机会。对于具有强劲国内市场(如燃料乙醇)的产品,出口机会简直是锦上添花,是增量增长的最佳机会。其他行业如工业木屑颗粒仅用于满足国外需求,其延续、增长和扩张对于行业的长期发展是至关重要。
It comes as no surprise then that the trade associations charged with protecting and growing the markets for wood pellets, fuel ethanol and biodiesel continue to press forward into new markets, hoping to establish and grow new opportunities for their producers. For products with robust domestic markets like fuel ethanol, export opportunities are simply the icing on the cake, and the best chance at incremental growth. Other industries like industrial wood pellets were built solely to satisfy foreign demand, and its continuation, growth and expansion is vital to the long-term viability of the industry.

 

来源: Biomass Magazine

Author:Tim Portz 

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