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如何利用木屑颗粒来挽救煤炭行业? How To Save Coal with Wood Pellets?

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2017-04-24  来源:全球先进生物能源资讯  浏览次数:36

在燃煤电站共烧颗粒将有助于实现新政府实现就业目标以及其他积极影响。

Cofiring pellets at coal-fired power stations would help achieve the new administration’s job-creating goals, as well as other positive impacts.

在燃煤电站共烧颗粒将有助于实现新政府实现就业目标以及其他积极影响。

Cofiring pellets at coal-fired power stations would help achieve the new administration’s job-creating goals, as well as other positive impacts.

By William Strauss | March 15, 2017

 

在大型电站中混合使用美国生产的木屑颗粒燃料与煤,可以维持煤矿开采工作,为另一个行业(林产品行业)创造数以万计的新工作岗位,并刺激美国新制造厂投资数十亿美元。

The use of U.S.-produced wood pellet fuel blended with coal in large utility power stations could sustain coal mining jobs, create tens of thousands of new jobs in another sector that is experiencing significant job losses—the forest products sector—and stimulate billions of dollars of new investment in new U.S. manufacturing plants.

 

通过在粉煤(PC)电站中支持工业木屑颗粒燃料与煤的共烧,政策将锁定PC电站的需求,因此保证对煤的显着需求。这个已经被证实的战略,已经在许多其他国家应用,证明美国生产煤炭的必要性,肯定了美国煤矿工作。
By supporting the blending of industrial wood pellet fuel with coal in pulverized coal (PC) power plants, policy will lock in the need for PC power plants, therefore guaranteeing significant demand for coal.This well-proven strategy, which is already in place in many other countries, can provide certainty for the need for U.S.-produced coal for decades, and certainty for U.S. coal mining jobs.

 

特朗普政府应该遵循的这一战略是因为这能够实现煤炭和林产品行业及环境的共赢。有许多优点,包括:

  • 使用现有的发电站;

  • 比新的天然气厂的资本成本低得多;

  • 可靠性和无降额;

  • 灵活,基本负载或按需发电;

  • 已在许多地方大规模应用;

  • 减少公用事业对天然气的依赖;

  • 降低碳排放;

  • 创造和维持工作;

  • 降低硫氧化物、氮氧化物和汞排放;

This strategy, which the Trump administration could follow, is a win-win-win for the coal and forest products sectors, and the environment. It offers many advantages, including: use of existing power stations; much lower capital cost than new natural gas plants; reliability and no derating; flexible, baseload or on-demand generation; already demonstrated at scale in many locations; lessening of utilities’ dependency on natural gas; lower carbon emissions; creation and sustaining of jobs; and lower sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxide and mercury emissions.

 

现有电站,页岩气革命
Existing Power Plant Fleet, Shale Gas Revolution

根据美国环境影响评估数据,美国仍然拥有大于250兆瓦(MW)的运行燃煤电站,其中大部分使用粉煤(PC)技术 - 约97%。燃煤电站很容易改造,以使用煤和工业木屑颗粒燃料的混合物,改造的工厂是可靠的,他们输出与100%的煤运行时相同的功率。

The U.S. still hosts 435 operating coal-fueled power plants larger than 250 megawatts (MW), most of which use pulverized coal (PC) technology—about 97 percent, according to U.S. EIA data.  PC power plants are easily modified to use a blend of coal and industrial wood pellet fuel, the modified plants are just as reliable, and they output the same amount of power as they did when running on 100 percent coal.

 

在美国,燃煤电站仍然提供超过50%的可用大规模公共电力发电(不包括小于250兆瓦的电站)。然而,这正在迅速改变。不是因为环境要求,而是因为低成本的天然气(NG)。页岩地层中的水力压裂已经释放了巨大的储量和大量的天然气,导致价格非常低。页岩气产量在过去8年中增长了8倍以上,由于天然气当前和未来预期的低成本,电力行业已经通过建设新的天然气燃料电站,将煤转向天然气,关闭老旧的燃煤电站。
Coal-fueled power stations still provide over 50 percent of the available large-scale utility electricity generation in the U.S., (excluding stations smaller than 250 MWs). That is changing rapidly, however. Not because of environmental rules, but because of low cost natural gas (NG). Hydraulic fracturing in shale formations has opened up massive reserves, and a flood of NG, resulting in very low prices. Shale gas production has increased more than eightfold in the past eight years, and as a result of current and expected future low-cost NG, the power sector has been shifting from coal to NG by building new, natural gas-fueled power plants, and retiring older, coal-fueled power plants.

从煤炭向天然气的转变,给煤矿业带来非常巨大的挑战。如果目前的趋势继续下去,没有理由不相信,这个行业就业可能进一步大幅下降。此外,美国燃煤电站正在老化。大于250兆瓦的燃煤电站的中值年龄是40年 - 90%的大型燃煤电站是27年或以上。

The shift from coal to NG has created very challenging conditions in the coal mining industry. If current trends continue, and there is no reason to believe that they will not, employment in the sector is likely to further decline significantly. Furthermore, the U.S. coal-fired power plant fleet is aging.The median age of PC power plants larger than 250 MWs is 40 years—90 percent of larger PC plants are 27 years old or older.   

随着燃煤电站的老化,由于低成本的天然气,建立新的燃煤电站的动力很小。

As the coal generation fleet ages, given low-cost natural gas, there is little incentive to build new coal plants.  
 

政策改变趋势

Policy to Change the Trend

缺少影响市场的政策,公用事业将继续转移到低成本的天然气,易于建造、运行维护方便等特点,联合循环天然气电站。

Absent policy that influences the markets, the utilities will continue to shift into the low-cost NG that can be used in easy-to-build, easy-to-run-and-maintain, combined-cycle NG power plants. 

 

新的特朗普政府似乎并担心可能实施会影响市场的政策。问题是:政策的基本目标是什么? 在发电领域,奥巴马政府的政策目标是降低碳排放。清洁电力计划(The Clean Power Plan)是为了这个目的而创建的,但是CPP在特朗普总统任期内不可能生存。
The new Trump administration does not seem shy about potentially implementing policies that will influence the markets. The question is: What is the underlying goal of a policy?  In respect to the power generation sector, the Obama administration’s goal of policy was to lower carbon emissions.The Clean Power Plan was created for that purpose, but it is highly unlikely that the CPP will survive the Trump presidency.  

 

在特朗普政府,一个明确的目标是把工作带回到工业中心地带,特别关注煤矿业。 为了实现这一目标,行政部门将必须实施改变发电经济性的政策。有可能公用事业将选择维持煤电厂运行。以下这个战略,将节省煤炭开采工作,比只用煤创造更多工作机会。与从煤转换为天然气相比,该战略效益更高。
In the Trump administration, a stated goal is to bring jobs back to the industrial heartland, with specific attention paid to the coal-mining sector. To achieve that goal, the administration will have to implement policy that changes the economics of power generation.There will have to be a reason that utilities will choose to keep the coal plants running. The following is a strategy that will save coal mining jobs and result in more jobs than firing on coal alone.The strategy also yields a much higher job sustaining and creation impact than shifting from coal to natural gas.


通过实现一个400兆瓦燃煤电站共烧10%木屑颗粒的话,可创造大约1,757个总工作岗位,包括乘数效应(直接工作造成的间接和导致的工作)相比于100%的煤,约1,686个工作。采矿、精炼和通过铁路和卡车运输煤炭与天然气的开采和管道相比更为劳动密集,天然气的开采与管道创造了大约576个工作岗位。而风能或太阳能电站是工作机会几乎为零。
The total jobs resulting from cofiring a 400-MW coal-fired power plant with a ratio of 10 percent wood pellets creates about 1,757 total jobs, including multiplier effects (the indirect and induced jobs that are a result of the direct jobs,) compared to 100 percent coal, at about 1,686 jobs.The mining, refining, and transportation via rail and truck of coal are more labor-intensive than the extraction and pipelining of NG, which creates about 576 jobs. And there are zero jobs associated with fueling wind or solar power plants.

如果维持和创造就业是目标,那么保持一些煤炭发电站运行的政策将有助于实现这一目标。支持共烧战略将保证对煤炭(以及因此的煤炭开采工作)有较高的需求。没有共烧的燃煤电站(像往常一样),它们的市场逐渐被天然气发电取代。但是,实施共燃的燃煤电站仍然在运行,在下图中使用的示例中,继续以90%煤炭需求。

If sustaining and creating jobs is the objective, then a policy that keeps some of the coal generation fleet running will help realize that objective. A policy that supports a cofiring strategy will guarantee a significantly higher demand for coal (and therefore for coal mining jobs) than business as usual.The cohort of PC power stations that do not cofire (business as usual)continue to see their markets taken over by NG generation. But the cohort of PC power stations that do cofire remain running and, in the example used in Image 2, continue to demand coal at a rate that is 90 percent of what it would be if the plant ran on only coal.

如果燃煤电站代表25%总煤炭需求,使用10%颗粒和90%煤炭混合燃料,2030年的煤炭需求量估计为每年1.48亿吨,高于没有政策支持下燃煤电站运行。更高的比例将导致2030年对煤炭的需求更高。上图显示了100%的燃煤电站共烧发电的情况。这种情况虽然不现实,但说明共烧政策可能对煤炭需求的影响。
If PC power plants representing 25 percent of total coal demand cofire a blend of 10 percent pellets and 90 percent coal, coal demand in 2030 is estimated to be 148 million tons per year higher than a circumstance under which there are no policy incentives for keeping the coal plants running.A higher proportion would result in an even higher demand for coal in 2030, versus business as usual.Image 2 shows a scenario in which 100 percent of the PC power plants cofire. That scenario is not realistic for several reasons, but is shown to illustrate the impact that a cofiring policy can have on the coal demand

 

当然,政策可能只是侧重于一个计划,来维持燃煤电厂使用100%煤运行。但有两个重要的原因,特朗普政府应该考虑共烧计划。第一是更多的工作,和显着的制造投资。大多数PC燃煤电厂和许多煤矿地区也有重要的林产品行业。纸浆和造纸行业的稳步下降导致全美的纸浆厂经营不善,每次倒闭时,成千上万的工厂、伐木和运输行业面临失业。工业颗粒燃料可以由进入纸浆和造纸厂的相同原料制成。
Of course, the policy could simply focus on a scheme for keeping coal power plants running on 100 percent coal. But there are two important reasons that the Trump administration should consider a cofiring scheme. The first is more jobs, and significant manufacturing investment. Most PC coal plants and many of the coal mines are in states that also have significant forest products industries. The steady decline in the pulp and paper sector is closing pulp mills across the U.S., and with each closure, thousands of mill jobs and logging and transportation jobs are lost. Industrial pellet fuel can be made from the same feedstock that goes into pulp and paper mills.

 

每个每年50万吨(TPY)颗粒生产厂,在森林项目供应链中维持大约800个直接或间接的工作岗位。支持共烧的政策支持两个大型和重要行业的就业:煤炭和林产品行业。在图1情况下,美国将需要每年生产约2000万吨的工业木屑颗粒,以在这些电站中提供10%的混合燃料。这将是一个重要的长期需求,将产生数十亿美元的新生产能力的投资。每50万吨颗粒燃料厂的平均建造成本约为1.25亿美元。
Every 500,000-ton-per-year (TPY) pellet manufacturing plant sustains about 800 direct, indirect and induced jobs across the forest projects supply chain. A policy that supports cofiring supports jobs in two large and economically important sectors: coal and forest products. In the Image 1 scenario, the U.S. would need to produce about 20 million tons per year of industrial wood pellets to provide the 10 percent blend in those power stations. This would be a significant long-term demand that would generate billions of dollars of investment in new production capacity.Each 500,000 TPY fuel manufacturing plant costs, on average, about $125 million to build.  

 

燃煤电站实际的共烧比例将基于对电站的寿命分析,以及接近潜在的颗粒燃料供应。公用事业部门希望避免使用较新的燃煤发电资产,并且这种策略提供了一个途径,使新工厂能够在其使用寿命内运行,同时在两个重要行业维持和创造工作需求。
The actual percentage of the PC power fleet that cofire will be based on an analysis of the age of the power stations, and the proximity to potential pellet fuel supply. Utilities would like to avoid stranding newer coal-fueled generating assets, and this strategy provides a pathway to keeping the newer plants operating over their useful life, while sustaining and creating needed jobs in two important sectors.

 

特朗普政府应考虑采用共烧方案的第二个原因是较低的二氧化碳排放。与煤炭共烧的工业木屑颗粒燃料可降低碳排放量。虽然看起来特朗普政府不会将碳排放减缓作为任何政策的基础,但在共同战略的情况下,二氧化碳减排是工作保障、就业创造和制造业增长政策的副产品。因此,政府可以因在降低温室气体排放方面得到赞扬,这有助于推动实际政策目标。
The second reason a Trump administration should consider a cofiring scheme is lower CO2 emissions. Cofiring industrial wood pellet fuel with coal lowers carbon emissions versus 100 percent coal. While it would appear that the Trump administration will not make carbon emissions mitigation the foundation of any policy, in the case of a cofiring strategy, CO2 emissions reduction is a byproduct of a job protection, job creation and manufacturing growth policy. Thus, the administration can take credit for advancing the U.S.’s role in lowering greenhouse gas emissions as a corollary to the actual policy objective.  

 

结论

Conclusion

一个补偿发电机约0.007美元/千瓦时的政策,特朗普政府可以节省成千上万的煤炭开采工作,并在整个工业颗粒供应链中创造数以万计的新工作岗位。美国共烧市场的增长,将刺激在美国中心地区对新工业颗粒制造厂数十亿美元的投资。 作为副产品,美国降低了煤炭生产行业的碳影响。

For a policy that compensates the generators about $0.007 per kilowatt-hour, the Trump administration could save tens of thousands of coal mining jobs and create tens of thousands of new jobs across the industrial pellet supply chain. Growth of a U.S. cofiring market would spur billions of dollars of investment in new industrial pellet manufacturing plants in the heartland of the US.  And, as a byproduct, the U.S. lowers the carbon impact of the coal generation sector.

 

在2016年,全球燃煤电站消耗大约1400万吨颗粒燃料。大多数国家进口他们的颗粒燃料(大多数从美国和加拿大进口)作为其减少碳减排政策的一部分。这是一个成熟的、低成本的解决方案。美国是主要的颗粒燃料生产国,这是一个重要的行业,带动数万个就业机会。
Using pellet fuel in PC power plants around the world consumed about 14 million metric tons of pellets in 2016. Most nations import their pellet fuel (the majority is imported from the U.S. and Canada) as a part of their carbon reduction policies. It is a proven, low-cost solution for that purpose. For the pellet fuel producer nations, of which the U.S. is the leader, it is an important major industry that supports tens of thousands of jobs.

 

新政府可以与煤炭和林产业实现共赢,如果它制定了一项政策,允许颗粒燃料与煤在一些我国的燃煤发电机组共烧,可能成为安全可靠的电网的骨干。
The new administration could have a major win-win with the coal and forest products sectors, if it crafts a policy that allows the blending of pellet fuel with coal in some our nation’s coal-fired generation fleet, a fleet that currently is, and could continue to be, the backbone of a secure and reliable power grid.

 
来源:FutureMetrics
Author: William Strauss 

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