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FutureMetrics:白皮书分析了韩国工业木屑颗粒和公用事业

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2017-05-19  浏览次数:79
 

 

K

orea

韩国


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近年来,韩国工业木屑颗粒的需求迅速增长,预计未来十年将大幅增长。这份简短的白皮书讨论了为什么这种增长正在发生,预计将继续下去。该文件还显示了为什么韩国公用事业公司用于确保木屑颗粒燃料安全的短期招标策略在可预见的将来仍会继续使用,尽管缺乏长期供应协议会面临很多挑战。

Demand for industrial wood pellets in S. Korea has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to grow significantly over the next half decade. This brief white paper discusses why that growth is happening and is expected to continue. The paper also shows why the short-term tendering strategy that is used by S. Korean utilities for securing wood pellet fuel may remain in use for the foreseeable future despite the challenges that the absence of long-term agreements place on the supply side.

     

 

工业木屑颗粒 - 需求基于政策
Industrial Wood Pellets – Demand is based on policy

 

工业木屑颗粒是用于替代大型煤电厂中的粉煤燃料。全球几乎所有的大型煤电厂都是基于煤粉(PC)设计的。木屑颗粒容易粉碎,体积相对较小,发电厂可以将煤与木屑颗粒共烧,或使用100%的木屑颗粒,并且不会降低输出量或可靠性。

Industrial wood pellets are used to substitute for coal in large utility power stations that use pulverized fuel systems. Almost all large utility coal plants around the world are based on pulverized coal (PC) designs. Wood pellets easily pulverize and, with relatively minor and well-established modifications, the power plant can co-fire wood pellets with coal or use 100% wood pellets and have no loss of output or reliability .

 

用颗粒替代煤的动机是降低二氧化碳排放量,增加可再生能源发电量的比例。 每兆瓦时(MWh)木屑颗粒燃料比煤炭更昂贵,但显着降低了二氧化碳排放。因此,在每个实现发电站共烧或完全燃烧木屑颗粒的国家,都有政策支持用颗粒替代煤炭。大多数政策要么鼓励减少二氧化碳排放,要么惩罚过度排放。

The motivation for substituting pellets for coal is to lower CO2 emissions  and increase the proportion of power generated from renewable energy. Wood pellet fuel is costlier per megawatt-hour (MWh) generated than coal but significantly lowers CO2 emissions. Therefore, in every country that has power stations that are co-firing or full-firing wood pellets there is policy that supports the strategy of pelletsfor-coal substitution. Most policies either provide incentives for the reduction in CO2 emissions or penalize those emissions.

 

韩国的政策并没有明确指出二氧化碳减排。它基于可再生能源配额制(RPS),要求主要的公用事业要达到一定的可再生能源发电比例。下面更详细地讨论如何实施该政策。全球工业木屑颗粒市场起源于欧洲。但欧盟和英国工业木屑颗粒市场需求的增长即将结束。下图显示了2025年需求的历史增长和需求预测。

S. Korea’s policy does not explicitly target CO2 reduction. It is based on a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that places requirements on the major utilities to generate a proportion of their electricity from renewable sources. How that policy is implemented is discussed in more detail below. The global industrial wood pellet market had its genesis in Europe. But the growth in demand for industrial wood pellets in the EU and UK markets is nearing an end. The chart below shows the historical growth in demand and the forecast for demand to 2025.

 

据预测,2019年以后,日本和韩国的预期需求将显著增长。

As the forecast shows, the expected significant demand growth after 2019 is in Japan and S. Korea.

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韩国RPS和工业木屑颗粒需求
The Korean RPS and Demand for Industrial Wood Pellets

韩国以可再生能源配额制(RPS)来指导发电行业。RPS计划要求在2012-2024年期间,13家最大的电力公司(装机容量大于500兆瓦)要稳步增加其发电总量的可再生能源比例。下表显示了每年所需的可再生能源电力比例。

S. Korea is guiding the power generation industry with a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). The RPS program requires the 13 largest power companies (with installed power capacity larger than 500 MW) to steadily increase their renewable energy mix in total power generation over the period from 2012-2024. The table below shows the annual required proportion of power that has to be generated from renewable sources.

2.jpg

电力公司实现他们的RPS目标,可以通过以下方式:

For power companies to meet their RPS targets they can:

 

  • 自行投资可再生能源装置,并获得可再生能源证书或RECs(基于可再生能源产生的发电量,可再生能源证书(Renewable Energy Certificates, RECs))

    Invest in renewable energy installations themselves and receive renewable energy certificates or RECs (RECs are issued based on the MWh’s generated from renewable sources)

     

  • 购买市场上的RECs以履行其义务。

    Purchase RECs on the market to meet their obligation.

 

电力公司必须每年向新能源和可再生能源中心(KNERC)提交产生或购买的总RECs。如果电力公司没有按RPS要求提交所需的RECs数量,可再生能源中心将罚款。罚款相当于该年度RECs平均市场价格的150%。

The power companies must submit the total RECs both generated or purchased to the New and Renewable Energy Center (KNERC) on an annual basis. If the power company fails to present the required number of RECs based on the RPS mandate, KNERC applies a financial fine. The penalty is equal to 150% of the average market price of the RECs for that year.

 

一些可再生能源电力正由新的风力和太阳能装置产生。然而,韩国电力需求的增长以及燃煤发电厂转换成使用颗粒的成本相对较低,导致木屑颗粒共烧的迅速增长。热量产生的电力是基础负荷,韩国有一个庞大和不断增长的工业基础,需要24/7的电力。下图3显示,韩国要求其煤电厂要具备非常高的可用性。

Some of that renewable power is being generated from new wind and solar installations. However, the growth in the S. Korean demand for electricity and the relatively low cost to modify a PC power plant to use pellets has resulted in a rapid increase in wood pellet co-firing. Thermally generated power is baseload and S. Korea has a large and growing industrial base that demands 24/7 power. The chart below3 shows that S. Korea demands that its coal power stations run at very high availability.

3.jpg但为什么韩国电力公司(gencos)会使用更高成本的木屑颗粒燃料?是什么推动了韩国对工业木屑颗粒的需求?

But why would S. Korean generating companies (gencos) use the higher cost wood pellet fuel? What is driving the S. Korean demand for industrial wood pellets?

 

生产和销售RECs的价格和不合规的潜在成本。

It is the price of producing and selling RECs and the potential cost of non-compliance.

 

下表显示,从2015年到2016年,RECs产量增长了近36%。但即使供应量增加,RECs的价格也有所上涨。2015-2016年的平均价格上涨了74%,相当于约150美元/兆瓦时。这意味着韩国对RECs显着的超额需求。

The table below shows that the volume of RECs produced increased by almost 36% from 2015 to 2016. Yet even as supply has increased, the price of RECs has also increased. The average price from 2015 to 2016 increased by 74% to the equivalent of about $150/MWh. This implies a significant excess demand for RECs in S. Korea.

4.jpg从可再生燃料产生的每兆瓦时的REC 是150美元,电力销售价格高于批发电力的现货价格。因此,即使考虑到使用木屑颗粒燃料产生的成本较高,并增加有效和可靠地共烧颗粒所需的转换摊销成本,韩国燃煤电厂可以通过共烧它们底线。

$150 per REC received per megawatt-hour generated from renewable fuel is a much higher rate for power sales then the spot price for wholesale electric power. Therefore, even after accounting for the higher cost of generation from using wood pellet fuel and adding in the estimated amortized cost of the modifications needed to efficiently and reliably co-fire pellets, S. Korean PC power plants can improve their bottom line by co-firing.

 

FutureMetrics估算了一个典型的/假设的韩国电厂的平准化能源成本(LCOE),并估算了共烧木屑颗粒的LCOE的增加。分析显示,在目前的REC价格下,韩国公用事业公司将通过提高共烧率来显着增加平均净收入。

FutureMetrics has estimated the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for a typical/hypothetical S. Korean power plant and has estimated the incremental increase in LCOE from co-firing wood pellets. The analysis shows that at current REC prices, S. Korean utilities will significantly increase the net of their average revenue over the cost of generation by increasing their co-firing rates.

 

下图中的图表显示了韩国近期的颗粒需求以及预测需求。预测的下线是基于共烧率会大幅增高,到2024年,RPS要求从目前的4%增加到10%。上线显示了预计的木屑颗粒需求,因为宣布燃煤电厂将使用100%的木屑颗粒。

This is already happening. The chart on the next page shows the recent demand for pellets in S. Korea and the forecast demand. The lower line in the forecast is based on the expected ramp-up of co-firing as the RPS requirement moves from its current 4% to 10% in 2024. The upper line shows the expected wood pellet demand given the announced PC power plants that will be using 100% wood pellets.

5.jpg图表显示了通过在燃煤电厂中使用颗粒来满足RPS要求的隐含比例。 2019-2020年,当全烧颗粒电厂上线时,颗粒需求的迅速增长,估计通过颗粒满足的RPS要求得比例将达到70%左右。2024年,当可再生能源的RPS比例达到10%时,通过颗粒满足的可再生能源需求量估计为56%。

Note also that the chart shows the implied percent of the RPS requirement that is satisfied by using pellets in the PC power plants . The rapid increase in pellet demand as the full-firing plants come online in 2019-2020 takes the estimated proportion of the RPS requirement satisfied by pellets to about 70%. In 2024, when the RPS proportion for renewables hits 10%, the estimated portion of the renewable requirement met by pellets is 56%.

 

 

    

 

REC价格和韩国需求
REC Prices and S. Korean Demand

如上所述,收入超过成本的净额正在推动韩国公用事业公司使用木屑颗粒用于发电。下表显示了一个假设的韩国燃煤电厂会计例子。下面的分析是假设所有的可再生能源比例必须通过电厂的满足。如上图所示,一些RPS的配额将通过其他形式满足,如风能和太阳能。

As noted above, the net of revenue over costs is driving the move by S. Korean utilities into the use of wood pellets for power generation. The tables below show an example of a hypothetical S. Korean PC power station’s accounting.The analysis below assumes that all of the renewable obligation has to be satisfied by the power plant. As the chart above implies, some of the RPS obligation will be satisfied by other forms of generations such as wind and solar.

 

下面的第一个表格显示了2018年一个100%用煤的煤炭电厂的产出。2018年可再生能源所需电力比例为4.5%,该发电厂的可再生能源产量为零。鉴于该模型的假设,该公用事业公司在2018年期间的罚款约2740万美元。

The first table below shows the outcome for a hypothetical power plant that is generating with 100% coal in 2018. The 2018 proportion of power required from renewables is 4.5% and this power plant is generating zero percent from renewables. Given the assumptions in the model, the utility is paying a fine of about $27.4 million in 2018.

6.jpg如果没扣除不能生产罚款或购买15万合规所需的RECs费用,该电厂本来盈利约为2.96美元/兆瓦时。扣除罚款成本后,该厂约为-5.26美元/兆瓦时。

This hypothetical plant would have been making a profit of about $2.96/MWh if it were not for the fine for failing to generate or purchase RECs equal to the 150,000 needed for compliance. After subtracting the cost of the fine, the plant is in the red by about $5.26/MWh.

 

下表显示了同一厂;但现在该厂5%的电量通过颗粒产生。

The next table shows the same plant; but now the plant is generating 5% of its MWh’s from pellets.

7.jpg

在这种情况下,由于他们生产了17万RECs,所以他们没有任何罚款。这比所需数量多出2万RECs 。他们也可以通过销售RECs产生收入。在这个例子中,由于来自共烧颗粒的成本较高,该工厂在RPS调整之前的发电量略微降低。增加REC收入等于约6.12美元/兆瓦时,净现金流量为7.73美元/兆瓦时。

In this case, they are paying no fine since they are producing 170,000 RECs. That is 20,000 RECs above the required amount. They are also producing revenue from selling RECs. In this example, the plant has a slightly lower net per MWh before the RPS adjustment due to the higher cost of generation from cofiring pellets. Adding the REC income, equal to about $6.12/MWh, yields a net positive cash flow of $7.73/MWh.

 

事实上,在目前REC销售价格,有一个强烈的动机实现100%木屑颗粒全烧。

In fact, at current REC prices, there is a strong incentive to go all in and full-fire at 100% pellets.

 

下表显示了相同的电厂在2020年100%木屑颗粒全烧情况。

The table below shows the same hypothetical plant full-firing at 100% wood pellets in 2020.

8.jpg没有REC收入的利益,由于颗粒燃料的较高的成本和完全转换的摊余成本(包括干燥储存),工厂将损失约48美元/兆瓦时。但是,假设REC价格为14万韩元(122美元),每兆瓦时生产一个REC,净现金流量将近74美元/兆瓦时。与上述第一个表中的100%煤炭2.96元/兆瓦时的现金流量进行比较。

Without the benefit of the REC income, the plant would be losing about $48/MWh due to the higher cost of pellet fuel and the amortized costs of a full conversion (including sufficient dry storage). But, assuming REC prices of ₩140,000 ($122) and with every MWh producing a REC, the net cash flow is almost $74/MWh. Compare that to the cash flow from generating with 100% coal of $2.96/MWh in the first table above..

 

韩国的公用事业,将电厂转换成全烧木屑颗粒将是非常有利可图的!

S. Korean utilities that convert plants for full-firing wood pellets will be very profitable!

 

 

  

 

未来木屑颗粒需求取决于REC和颗粒价格
Future Sustained Demand for Wood Pellets Depends on REC Prices and Pellet Prices

 

文中提到的全面燃烧转化,预测需求会增长,表示燃料供应安全性的需求可能会激励韩国公用事业从目前的短期投资转向长期招标策略,使用7年或以上的承购协议。

The increase in demand that is forecast from the full-firing conversions mentioned in the footnote on page 4 and the chart on page 5 would suggest that the need for the security of fuel supply would motivate S. Korean utilities to move from the current short-term tendering strategy to a more long-term strategy of engaging in offtake agreements with terms of 7 or more years.

 

但是,现金流的可持续性存在风险。

But there are risks to the sustainability of the cash flows that yield the outcome in the table above.

 

REC价格由RECs的市场决定。在任何一个市场,供求都设定了市场价格。目前对于RECs的需求过剩。 由于韩国RPS在2024年前可提高至10%的可再生能源,市场仍将处于需求过剩的状态。

REC prices are determined by the market for RECs. As in any market, supply and demand set the market clearing price. Currently there is excess demand for RECs. As the S. Korean RPS ramps up to 10% renewables by 2024, it is likely that the market will remain in a state of excess demand.

 

然而,REC价格有可能下降。图表显示即使颗粒需求量很大,在燃煤电厂按RPS要求的比例使用颗粒燃料也不会超过100%。该图表显示,颗粒燃料可能在2020年满足70%的RPS要求。分析中不包括的是其他可再生能源(如风能和太阳能)产生的电力比例。有可能在将来的某个时候总RECs生产可能接近或超过RPS需求。

However, it is possible that REC prices may fall. The chart on page 5 suggests that even at high pellet demand levels, the proportion of the RPS compliance from using pellet fuel in PC power stations may never exceed 100%. The chart shows that it is possible that pellet fuel will provide 70% of the RPS requirements in 2020. What is not included in the analysis is the proportion of power generated from other renewables such as wind and solar. It is possible that at some point in the future the total RECs produced could approach or exceed the RPS requirements.

 

随着RECs的供应增加,购买的RECs的需求下降,REC价格将下降。

As the supply of RECs increases and demand for purchased RECs declines, REC prices will fall.

 

假设在2022年,REC价格为25,000韩元(22美元)。我们假设发电厂使用100%颗粒,将有以下现金流。

Suppose the REC price is ₩25,000 ($22) in 2022. Our hypothetical power station using 100% pellets would have the following cash flows.

9.jpg如果所有投入物均不变,包括2018年分析中使用的颗粒的价格,相同的发电厂切换到100%的煤炭,现金流如下图。

With all the inputs unchanged, including the price of pellets that was used in the 2018 analysis, the same power plant switching to 100% coal would have the cash flows shown in the table on the next page.

10.jpg

上表中的分析不完全准确,因为罚款不是基于REC现货价格,而是前12个月的平均价格。假设REC的平均价格为10万韩元(87美元),罚款将更高,每兆瓦时的净现金流量将会较低。然而,仍然没有像使用100%的颗粒一样低。

This analysis in the table above is not completely accurate because the fine is not based on spot REC prices but on the average REC price over the preceding 12 months. Assuming an average REC price of ₩100,000 ($87) over the prior year, the fine will be higher and the net cash flow per MWh will be lower.However, it is still not as low as when firing 100% pellets as shown in the chart on the previous page.

11.jpg

该分析假定交付的颗粒价格保持不变。随着韩国对木屑颗粒的需求量增加,可能会增加颗粒交付价格。如果发生这种情况,若REC价格下跌,公用事业将面临进一步挑战。

This analysis assumes that delivered pellet prices remain unchanged. It is likely that as S. Korean demand for wood pellets increases, the price for delivered pellets will also increase. If that happens, the utilities will be further challenged if REC prices fall.

 

 

 

 

结论
Conclusion

 

这一分析揭示了韩国市场的一个难题。 大多数颗粒生产商和项目贷款人/投资者不会承担新的颗粒厂的资本支出,而无需长期合作协议,以保证大部分工厂的生产将以已知的数量和价格出售。迄今为止,韩国公用事业机构并未使用长期合作协议。但是,韩国需求增长已经足以促使越南的生产能力快速增长,从而满足韩国的招标。但随着需求的上升和需求大大超过了越南利用家具制造废弃物生产低成本颗粒的能力,很难想像如何在没有长期协议的情况下部署与韩国预期的需求相匹配的颗粒生产能力。

This analysis reveals a difficult problem for the S. Korean market. Most pellet producers and project lenders/investors will not commit to the capital expense of a new pellet plant without a long-term offtake agreement to guarantee that most of the plant’s production will be sold at known volumes and prices. To date, S. Korean utilities have not engaged in long-term offtake agreements. But demand growth has been sufficient to spur rapid growth in production capacity in Vietnam that satisfies S. Korean tenders8 . But as demand ramps up and demand significantly exceeds Vietnam’s capacity to produce low cost pellets from furniture manufacturing residuals, it is difficult to conceive of how pellet production capacity matching the expected S. Korean demand can be deployed without long-term agreements.

 

然而,随着REC价格下跌的风险,韩国公用事业如何使用长期协议?或者反过来说,生产商如何相信韩国的合约方能够根据收购协议的条款来支付他们的产品?

Yet with the risk of falling REC prices, how can S. Korean utilities engage in long-term agreements? Or conversely, how can a producer have the confidence that their S. Korean counterparty will be able to afford their product over the terms of the offtake agreement?

 

也许韩国的政策会有变化。没有政策改变,目前韩国RPS的发电量没有长期的保证。

Perhaps there will be change in policy in S. Korea. That is a distinct possibility. Without a policy change, there is currently no long-term guarantee to the revenue per MWh from the S. Korean RPS.

 

所有实现发电市场颗粒共烧或全烧的国家都有其政策支持,支持和消除风险的长期颗粒供应协议。

All other nations that have a developed pellet co-firing or full-firing power markets have policies that support and de-risk long-term pellet supply agreements.

 

韩国政策的演变和工业木屑颗粒的需求将持续变化…

The evolution of the S. Korean policies and their demand for industrial wood pellets will be most interesting to monitor…

 

 

来源:FutureMetrics
Author:William Strauss 

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