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2019年木屑颗粒市场展望 2019 wood pellet markets outlook

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2019-01-03  来源:全球先进生物能源资讯  浏览次数:646
 

从北美生产商的角度来看,2018年是相当长一段时间内,木屑颗粒贸易最好的年份之一。随着英国Drax电站的崛起,经过几年的缓和发展,新市场和消费者推动了全球需求的强劲增长。丹麦、韩国和日本的进口均较之前的高位,增加至少40%,日本木屑颗粒进口量增加一倍以上。经过几年的疲软,更好的市场条件和更少的库存也使得北美和欧洲供暖市场强劲增长。

From a North American producer’s perspective, 2018 was one of the best years in quite some time for the wood pellet trade. After several years of tempered development following the ramp up of the Drax power station in the UK, new markets and consumers drove strong growth in global demand. Imports to Denmark, South Korea and Japan all increased at least 40 per cent from previous highs, with Japanese wood pellet imports more than doubling. Better market conditions and less inventory also led to strong growth in North American and European heating markets after several weak years.

 

总体而言,2018年的木屑颗粒贸易量估计为2380万吨,比2017年的1890万吨高出26%。 本文将展望未来几年主要市场的预期。
Overall, wood pellet trade in 2018 is estimated at 23.8 million tonnes, a whopping 26 per cent increase from 2017’s 18.9 million tonnes. This article will provide an outlook for what to expect from key markets in the years to come.

工业颗粒市场
Industrial pellet markets

2018年工业颗粒需求估计为1750万吨。FutureMetrics预计,2023年工业需求将攀升至2900万吨。

Industrial pellet demand is estimated at 17.5 million tonnes in 2018. FutureMetrics projects that industrial demand will climb to 29 million tonnes in 2023.

预计近60%的新需求增长来自亚洲,其余大部分来自英国需求的增加以及荷兰重要的工业颗粒市场的重新出现。

Nearly 60 per cent of this new demand growth is projected to come from Asia, with most of the remainder from increased demand in the UK and the re-emergence of a significant industrial pellet market in the Netherlands.

英国 United Kingdom

2018年,随着EPH的 396兆瓦Lynemouth电站改造的调试以及Drax电站第四台机组的转换,英国颗粒需求在几年内首次大幅增加。

In 2018, UK pellet demand increased significantly for the first time in several years with the commissioning of EPH’s 396 MW Lynemouth Power Station conversion and the conversion of a fourth unit at the Drax power station.

 

展望未来,增长将主要受到Lynemouth电站全面运营和Drax电站可用性增加的推动。到2020年,随着MGT的 299兆瓦Teeside热电联产工厂的预定试运行,英国需求将再次增加,预计每年将使用150万吨。
Moving forward, growth will be primarily driven by a ramp up to full operation at Lynemouth and increased availability at the Drax power station. In 2020, UK demand will increase again with the scheduled commissioning of MGT’s 299 MW Teeside CHP plant, expected to use up to 1.5 million tonnes per year.

荷兰 Netherlands

荷兰作为工业木屑颗粒的主要市场有着悠久的历史。2010年,荷兰是工业木屑颗粒的最大市场 - 用于共烧以实现可再生能源目标。2012年推出新的可再生能源补贴计划后,市场迅速下滑。新的SDE +计划要求在生物质共烧有资格获得补贴之前制定新的可持续性标准。该可持续性标准最终于2015年获得批准。

The Netherlands has a history as a major market for industrial wood pellets. In 2010, the Netherlands was the biggest market for industrial wood pellets – used for co-firing to meet renewable energy goals. The market rapidly declined when a new renewable energy subsidy scheme was introduced in 2012. The new SDE+ scheme required new sustainability standards to be developed before biomass co-firing could qualify for subsidies. That sustainability criteria were finally approved in 2015.

 

2016年,四个电站共同获得补贴:RWE的Amer和Eemshaven电站、Engie Rotterdam和Uniper Maasvlakte 3(MPP3)。 Amer电站9号机组曾在旧的补贴计划下共烧,于2018年第四季度恢复共烧大量木屑颗粒。
In 2016, subsidies were awarded for co-firing at four power plants: RWE’s Amer and Eemshaven power stations, Engie Rotterdam and Uniper Maasvlakte 3 (MPP3). Unit 9 at the Amer power station, which had previously co-fired under the old subsidy scheme, resumed co-firing significant amounts of wood pellets in the fourth quarter of 2018.

 

其他电厂可能会在2019年和2020年开始共烧,使荷兰再次成为工业木屑颗粒的主要市场。预计荷兰共烧需求的增加将迅速接近250万吨。
The other plants will likely begin co-firing in 2019 and 2020, making the Netherlands a major market for industrial wood pellets once again. The ramp up in co-firing demand in the Netherlands is expected to quickly approach 2.5 million tonnes.

日本 Japan

日本木屑颗粒进口量在2018年首次超过100万吨,约为2017年进口量的两倍。到2018年前三季度,日本63%的木屑进口来自加拿大,31% 来自越南。 由于日本支持可再生能源的上网电价补贴的固定价格和长期合约,强大的对手(如加拿大和美国)的长期合约是大多数日本买家采购木屑颗粒的首选方式。 我们预计未来几年日本木屑颗粒进口量将持续快速增长,预计2023年进口量将超过500万吨。
Japanese wood pellet imports are on pace to exceed one million tonnes for the first time in 2018, approximately double the amount of imports from 2017. Through the first three quarters of 2018, 63 per cent of Japan’s wood pellet imports came from Canada and 31 per cent from Vietnam. Due to the fixed price and long contract length of the Feed-in-Tariff subsidy that supports renewable energy in Japan, long-term contracts from strong counter-parties, like those in Canada and the U.S., are the preferred way most Japanese buyers procure wood pellets. We expect to see continued rapid expansion in Japanese wood pellet imports in the years to come with imports projected to exceed five million tonnes in 2023. Our full detailed analysis on Japan is available in FutureMetrics’ 2018 Japanese Biomass Outlook, which will be updated again in early 2019.

韩国 South Korea

在韩国,可再生能源由可再生能源组合标准(RPS)推动,该标准要求公用事业公司从可再生能源中获取越来越多的能源。可交易的可再生能源证书(REC)用于证明合规性。公用事业有三种方式来满足RPS:自己生产REC,在交易所购买REC,或支付相当于年内REC平均价格150%的罚款。公用事业公司发现,共烧木屑颗粒是满足RPS最具成本效益的方法之一。

In South Korea, renewable energy is promoted by a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires utilities to source an increasing amount of their energy from renewable sources. Tradable Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) are used to demonstrate compliance. Utilities have three ways of meeting the RPS: produce RECs themselves, purchase RECs on an exchange, or pay a fine equal to 150 per cent of the average REC price during the year. Utilities have found that co-firing wood pellets is one of the most cost-effective ways of meeting the RPS.

然而,由于 RECs的价值、电力价格和颗粒价格的不确定性,韩国买家在签订长期合同时更加困难。尽管如此,仍有与北美生产商成功进行合同谈判的情况,特别是与专用生物质发电厂(而非主要公用事业公司在煤炭站共烧)。

However, due to uncertainty regarding the value of RECs, the price of power and the price of pellets, South Korean buyers have a more difficult time entering into long-term contracts. Nevertheless, there have been instances of successful contract negotiations with North American producers, particularly with dedicated biomass plants (as opposed to major utilities co-firing at coal stations).

 

韩国的需求主要是由快速发展的东南亚木屑颗粒生产能力满足。2018年,韩国的木屑颗粒进口量预计将达到340万吨,其中95%以上来自东南亚。
South Korean demand is largely responsible for the rapid development of wood pellet production capacity in Southeast Asia. In 2018, South Korea’s wood pellet imports are projected to have reached 3.4 million tonnes, with more than 95 per cent of that volume coming from Southeast Asia.

颗粒供暖市场
Pellet heating markets

虽然工业颗粒市场得到了市场分析师的大量关注,但供暖市场占全球总需求的大量增长,FutureMetrics预测未来五年将持续强劲增长。温暖的冬天和低竞争的燃料价格,特别是取暖油,在过去几年减缓了北美和欧洲的颗粒供暖需求增长。 虽然最近油价的下跌引起了一些担忧,但在大多数情况下,颗粒仍然比欧洲的化石供暖燃料节省了大量成本,并且除了美国的天然气之外,北美也是如此。

While industrial pellet markets get the bulk of market analysts’ attention, heating markets make up a significant amount of total global demand and FutureMetrics forecasts continued strong growth over the next five years. Warm winters and low competing fuel prices, particularly for heating oil, slowed pellet heating demand growth in North America and Europe over the last few years. While a recent fall in oil prices raises some concern, for the most part pellets still enjoy a significant cost savings over fossil-based heating fuels in Europe and, with the notable exception of natural gas in the U.S., North America as well.

 

在大多数情况下,颗粒供暖需求由当地生产商提供,因此对全球贸易的影响较小。 虽然美国、德国、法国、奥地利、瑞典和其他国家都有大量的颗粒供暖需求,但唯一对全球贸易产生重大影响的市场是意大利,其中颗粒主要用于家庭供暖。 我们估计2018年意大利进口了230万吨颗粒。市场可能更大,因为意大利木屑颗粒存在黑市,以避免22%的增值税(VAT) - 估计为20-30万吨由加拿大木屑颗粒协会提供。

For the most part, pellet heating demand is supplied by local producers, so it has less of an impact on global trade. While the U.S., Germany, France, Austria, Sweden and others have substantial pellet heating demand, the only market that has a significant impact on global trade is Italy, where pellets are primarily used for home heating. We estimate that Italy imported 2.3 million tonnes of pellets in 2018. The market is likely even larger as there is a black market for wood pellets in Italy to avoid a 22 per cent value-added tax (VAT) – estimated at 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes by the Wood Pellet Association of Canada.


美国拥有世界上最大的颗粒供暖市场之一。 2018年的年需求估计为250万至300万吨。大约85%的美国需求由中小型国内生产商满足,大约10%来自加拿大,5%来自美国南部的工业生产商。在过去几年中,美国颗粒市场库存过剩,但已经清理,生产商现在担心2018-2019供暖季节市场短缺,这主要是由于东部的纤维供应问题(约 50%的美国市场在东北部)。 我们预计未来几年美国供暖市场将出现温和增长,但与工业市场预期不同。
The U.S. has one of the largest pellet heating markets in the world. Annual demand in 2018 is estimated at 2.5 to 3.0 million tonnes. About 85 per cent of U.S. demand is met by small- and medium-sized domestic producers, roughly 10 per cent is imported from Canada and five per cent comes from industrial producers in the U.S. South. For the last several years, the U.S. pellet market has had a glut of inventory, but that has cleared and producers are now worried about shortages in the market over the 2018-2019 heating season, primarily due to fibre supply issues in the East (about 50 per cent of the U.S. market is in the Northeast). We expect to see moderate growth in the U.S. heating market over the next several years, but nothing like what is expected in industrial markets.

 

北美颗粒生产
North American pellet production

2018年北美颗粒出口量将增至历史最高水平。预计美国颗粒出口量将增加至620万吨,相比2017年增长20%。加拿大颗粒出口量预计将增加至240万吨,比上一年增长12.6% 。FutureMetrics估计,2023年美国出口量将增加到850万吨,而加拿大出口量将增加到370万吨。

North American pellet exports will have increased to an all-time high in 2018. U.S. pellet exports are projected to increase to 6.2 million tonnes, up 20 per cent from 2017. Canadian pellet exports are projected to increase to 2.4 million tonnes, up 12.6 per cent from a year prior. FutureMetrics projects that U.S. exports will increase to 8.5 million tonnes in 2023 while Canadian exports will increase to 3.7 million metric tonnes.

随着工业木屑颗粒市场的定价和需求强劲增长,我们预计再经过几年的实际增长后,将在美国南部开发新的主要工业制粒厂。此外,美国太平洋西北地区有能力为快速增长的亚洲颗粒市场供应一定数量的产品。缅因州有望成为新的重要出口地。

With pricing and demand growth strong in industrial wood pellet markets, we expect to see new major industrial pellet mills to be developed in the U.S. South after several years of measured growth. In addition, the U.S. Pacific Northwest is well positioned to supply some volume to rapidly growing Asian pellet markets. Maine is poised to become a new significant exporter.

在加拿大西部,新的增长可能会更加明显。森林火灾损失和高收获率的结束正在影响锯木厂的生产,从而影响了锯木厂的剩余物产量。颗粒生产商必须采购森林剩余物以维持生产率。加拿大东部将看到几个中小型工业制粒厂的发展,因为这些地区的锯木厂在寻找剩余物的市场。

In western Canada, new growth will likely be more measured. Forest fire losses and the end of the high harvest rates from dead stands killed by the mountain pine beetle are affecting sawmill production and thus sawmill residual output. Pellet producers must procure forest residuals to maintain production rates. Eastern Canada will see the development of several small- to medium-sized industrial pellet mills as sawmillers in those regions look for markets for their residuals.

 

来源:Canadian Biomass Magazine

 

 

 

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