全球先进生物能源资讯 » 新闻资讯 » 国际资讯 » 正文行业新闻 国际资讯 专家学者 技术交流 政策法规 展会动态 


放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2018-12-18  来源:全球先进生物能源资讯  浏览次数:973


There is no doubt that Asia’s demand for biomass is growing rapidly, but a big unknown is how much of a role wood pellets will play in meeting the emerging demand, and where will those pellets come from.



·South Korea and Japan 2017 wood pellet imports.


亚洲对生物质的需求正在迅速增长。过去几年里,进口到韩国和日本的木屑颗粒在呈指数增长。2017年,韩国进口240万吨 (Mt)木屑颗粒,比2012年进口量增加20倍。日本目前是一个相对较小的市场,但其增长也令人印象深刻。2017年,日本进口量超过50万吨,比2012年增长7倍。

Wood pellet imports into South Korea and Japan have grown exponentially in the past few years. In 2017, South Korea imported 2.4 metric tons (MT) of wood pellets, 20 times what was imported in 2012. Japan is currently a smaller market, but its growth has also been impressive. Japan imported over 0.5 MT in 2017, a seven-fold increase from 2012. 

韩国 Korea


The Renewable Portfolio Standard, introduced by the South Korean government in 2012, has supported the rapid growth of bioenergy. It requires energy companies with capacity exceeding 500 MW to obtain an increasing proportion of their electricity from renewable sources. To satisfy their RPS targets, obligated companies can either produce their own renewable energy, which will earn them renewable energy certificates (RECs) per megawatt-hour (MWh) of renewable energy produced, or purchase RECs on the market. But in May, the government announced changes to the RPS, which threatened to jeopardize some planned biomass projects. The government decided to change the REC weightings of some biomass technologies. Its motivation was to reduce obligated companies’ reliance on biomass and imported materials in achieving their RPS targets, and encourage deployment of other renewable technologies. 

新的REC权重(上图)适用于新的生物质项目,或希望改变其燃料类型的运营项目,而现有项目将继续获得之前的REC权重。这些变化意味着使用进口生物质的新型专用工厂的支持率将从1.5 REC/MWh降至1 REC/MWh,而新的使用进口木材共烧和煤转化生物转化项目现在根本得不到任何支持。但是,对于计划使用国内“未使用的木材”的项目支持有所增加,例如:森林残留物。

The new REC weightings (Figure 1) apply to new biomass projects, or operating projects that wish to change their fuel type, while existing projects will continue to receive the previous REC weightings. The changes mean new, dedicated plants using imported biomass will see their support fall from 1.5 REC/MWh to 1 REC/MWh, while new cofiring and coal-to-biomass conversion projects using imported wood will now receive no support at all. However, support has increased for projects planning to use domestic, “unused wood,” e.g. forest residues. 



The government has introduced a grace period, which means planned, dedicated biomass projects can still claim the old REC weightings if they secure construction plan approval before January 2019. Any projects that fail to obtain construction approval by this date will only be eligible for the reduced support. Our analysis suggests that the new REC weightings for dedicated plants will threaten their economic viability, making it vital for those in the planning stages to secure the old weightings. It is difficult to know which dedicated plants in the pipeline will be able to meet the six-month permitting deadline, but the grace period has incentivized planned, dedicated projects to move quickly with development plans.


此外,支持计划共烧和煤转化生物转换项目的削减意味着GS E&R取消了其在Donghae电厂的共烧计划,KOEN将不再将其Yeongdong 2号机组从煤炭转为生物质 (它将继续在该机组共烧生物质)。

In addition, the cuts to support for planned cofiring and coal-to-biomass conversion projects means GS E&R has cancelled its plans to cofire at its Donghae Electric Power plant, and KOEN will no longer convert its Yeongdong unit No. 2 from coal to biomass (it will continue to cofire biomass at the unit).


Other companies that already cofire wood pellets in their coal plants to help meet their RPS targets will be unaffected by the changes, including the five state-owned generating companies that have been the main consumers of wood pellets in South Korea. Therefore, short-term biomass demand should be stable, but there has been mounting speculation that the South Korean government could soon change its policy and reduce support for existing cofirers, too. We understand that a decision is expected from the government about whether to curb cofiring in mid-2019.

日本 Japan


In Japan, the market has evolved differently from South Korea, and instead has been supported by a feed-in-tariff (FIT) scheme that provides a 20-year subsidy to firms producing renewable energy. Biomass, specifically under the general wood category, has proved hugely popular. By March 2017, almost 12 GW of biomass projects had been approved under the FIT scheme, far exceeding the quantity envisaged under Japan’s Best Energy Mix 2030 scenario of 2.7 to 4 GW.


The huge scale of this potential growth in biomass demand has, understandably, drawn a lot of attention. Biomass producers and users worldwide are looking keenly to Asia, and wish to understand how the growing market may impact existing global trade flows. 

然而亚洲生物质需求的前景远未确定,而各种各样的变数可能会限制其增长。Hawkins Wright为了确定新兴生物质市场的真实性质,在过去几个月来,进行了广泛的实地考察,实地考察,会议,定量和定性分析。这项研究为我们提供了独特的见解,这些见解发表在一份新的报告“2030年亚太生物质需求和供应的战略评估”中。
The outlook for Asian biomass demand is far from certain, however, and a wide range of variables could feasibly constrain its growth. Hawkins Wright therefore wanted to establish the true nature of the emerging biomass market. Over several months, we carried out extensive fieldwork, site visits, meetings, quantitative and qualitative analysis. This research has provided us with unique insights that are published in a new, multiclient report, “Strategic Assessment of Asian Pacific Biomass Demand and Supply out to 2030.”

An important part of that study was identifying viable sources of available biomass that could meet the needs of this new market. We wanted to determine not just how much biomass will be needed, but where it will come from. 

Currently, a lot of the region’s biomass demand is from coal-fired power plants cofiring wood pellets. But looking ahead, a growing proportion of the new demand will consist of dedicated biomass plants. Those dedicated plants will utilize circulated fluidized bed boilers, which are much more fuel flexible then pulverized coal boilers, and therefore not restricted to using just wood pellets. It could be assumed that generators will therefore source more local, cheaper alternative biomass such as PKS or wood chips, however, we have concluded that wood pellets will continue to play a very important role.


We see great potential for wood pellets to fulfill the growing demand, and we predict a large percentage will come from North American suppliers. One major factor fueling our prediction is that many of the dedicated plants in Japan and South Korea will be developed by IPPs funded by debt. If a project developer intends to finance a power project with debt, lenders will almost certainly want a secure feedstock supply contract to be agreed with a bankable counterparty. Conversely, a project financed by a parent company’s balance sheet, or a utility intending to cofire biomass with coal at fairly low rates, may deem a long-term fuel contract unnecessary or too expensive. 


From our research, we have identified a number of companies that could be deemed bankable, but none are currently in Southeast Asia. Therefore, Asian buyers looking for bankable supply may need to source wood pellets from North America, where there are creditworthy, large-scale producers with a reliable track record. 


That trend is already evident in the high interest that Japan has shown in western Canada. But at the point where all affordable supply in Canada is utilized, the Japanese will start to look elsewhere in North America. The U.S. South is an obvious choice, given its 8 MT of installed, industrial-grade nameplate capacity. Already, U.S. wood pellet producer Enviva has secured contracts with Japanese buyers. However, challenging logistics and high transport costs will be a barrier to producers in the U.S. South wanting to export to Asia, and how well those challenges can be overcome will influence how much supply can be secured. 


Meanwhile, some South Korean IPPs planning dedicated biomass power plants could follow a similar train of thought to their Japanese counterparties. However, it is unlikely the five South Korean gencos will change their purchasing habits. They cofire wood pellets at low rates (3 to 5 percent) at a few of their coal-fired stations, and are obligated to purchase via a tender system. This system has favored low-cost supply, with no importance put on security or quality, and has helped establish the SE Asian supply market, specifically Vietnam’s dominance in the region. Vietnam accounted for 62 percent of South Korea’s imports in 2017, sending over 1.5 MT. 

另一个可能鼓励木屑颗粒需求的因素是东南亚地区对生物质供应的高度竞争。 根据我们在纸浆和造纸行业的经验,很明显该地区的木片供应面临压力,虽然PKS资源丰富,但棕榈油厂的运输限制及其目前的使用将严重限制出口。

Another factor likely to encourage demand for wood pellets is the high level of competition for biomass supply in SE Asia. From our experience in the pulp and paper industry, it is clear that wood chip supply is under pressure in the region, and although there are abundant resources of PKS, transportation limitations and its current use by palm oil mills will severely limit exports. 

There will be a role for SE Asian wood pellet suppliers, too, especially once a more liquid spot market emerges in the region, though that is not to say long-term contracts will not be signed with SE Asian suppliers. In the near-term, however, as the large pipeline of Asian projects work toward securing financing, we predict more contracts will be signed with North American suppliers. Time will show whether suppliers in SE Asia are able to demonstrate sufficient creditworthiness to increase their contracted supply volumes. 


来源:By Rachael Levinson