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亚洲生物质市场:木屑颗粒扮演多大的角色

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2018-12-18  来源:全球先进生物能源资讯  浏览次数:604
 

毫无疑问,亚洲对生物质的需求正在迅速增长,但不为人知的是木屑颗粒在满足新兴需求方面将扮演多大的角色,这些颗粒来自何处。

There is no doubt that Asia’s demand for biomass is growing rapidly, but a big unknown is how much of a role wood pellets will play in meeting the emerging demand, and where will those pellets come from.

 

·2017年韩国和日本木屑颗粒进口情况。

·South Korea and Japan 2017 wood pellet imports.

 

亚洲对生物质的需求正在迅速增长。过去几年里,进口到韩国和日本的木屑颗粒在呈指数增长。2017年,韩国进口240万吨 (Mt)木屑颗粒,比2012年进口量增加20倍。日本目前是一个相对较小的市场,但其增长也令人印象深刻。2017年,日本进口量超过50万吨,比2012年增长7倍。

Wood pellet imports into South Korea and Japan have grown exponentially in the past few years. In 2017, South Korea imported 2.4 metric tons (MT) of wood pellets, 20 times what was imported in 2012. Japan is currently a smaller market, but its growth has also been impressive. Japan imported over 0.5 MT in 2017, a seven-fold increase from 2012. 

韩国 Korea

韩国政府于2012年推出的可再生能源组合标准(RPS),其支持了生物能源的快速增长。它要求容量超过500兆瓦的能源公司从可再生能源中获得越来越多的电力。为了满足其RPS目标,有义务的公司可以生产自己的可再生能源,这将获得可再生能源生产的每兆瓦时(MWh)可再生能源证书(RECs),或购买市场上的REC。但在5月份,政府宣布对RPS进行了更改,这有可能危及一些计划中的生物质项目。政府决定改变一些生物质技术的REC权重。其动机是减少有义务公司对生物质和进口材料的依赖,以实现其RPS目标,并鼓励使用其他可再生技术的。

The Renewable Portfolio Standard, introduced by the South Korean government in 2012, has supported the rapid growth of bioenergy. It requires energy companies with capacity exceeding 500 MW to obtain an increasing proportion of their electricity from renewable sources. To satisfy their RPS targets, obligated companies can either produce their own renewable energy, which will earn them renewable energy certificates (RECs) per megawatt-hour (MWh) of renewable energy produced, or purchase RECs on the market. But in May, the government announced changes to the RPS, which threatened to jeopardize some planned biomass projects. The government decided to change the REC weightings of some biomass technologies. Its motivation was to reduce obligated companies’ reliance on biomass and imported materials in achieving their RPS targets, and encourage deployment of other renewable technologies. 

新的REC权重(上图)适用于新的生物质项目,或希望改变其燃料类型的运营项目,而现有项目将继续获得之前的REC权重。这些变化意味着使用进口生物质的新型专用工厂的支持率将从1.5 REC/MWh降至1 REC/MWh,而新的使用进口木材共烧和煤转化生物转化项目现在根本得不到任何支持。但是,对于计划使用国内“未使用的木材”的项目支持有所增加,例如:森林残留物。

The new REC weightings (Figure 1) apply to new biomass projects, or operating projects that wish to change their fuel type, while existing projects will continue to receive the previous REC weightings. The changes mean new, dedicated plants using imported biomass will see their support fall from 1.5 REC/MWh to 1 REC/MWh, while new cofiring and coal-to-biomass conversion projects using imported wood will now receive no support at all. However, support has increased for projects planning to use domestic, “unused wood,” e.g. forest residues. 

 

政府已经引入了宽限期,这意味着如果计划的专用生物质项目在2019年1月之前获得建设计划批准,它们仍可以申请旧的REC权重。任何未能在此日期之前获得建设许可的项目将只有削减支持。我们的分析表明,专用工厂的新REC权重将威胁到它们的经济可行性,这使得规划阶段的人们能够确保旧的权重。很难知道管道中的哪些专用工厂能够满足六个月的许可期限完工,但宽限期激励了计划的专门的项目,以便快速制定发展计划。

The government has introduced a grace period, which means planned, dedicated biomass projects can still claim the old REC weightings if they secure construction plan approval before January 2019. Any projects that fail to obtain construction approval by this date will only be eligible for the reduced support. Our analysis suggests that the new REC weightings for dedicated plants will threaten their economic viability, making it vital for those in the planning stages to secure the old weightings. It is difficult to know which dedicated plants in the pipeline will be able to meet the six-month permitting deadline, but the grace period has incentivized planned, dedicated projects to move quickly with development plans.

 

此外,支持计划共烧和煤转化生物转换项目的削减意味着GS E&R取消了其在Donghae电厂的共烧计划,KOEN将不再将其Yeongdong 2号机组从煤炭转为生物质 (它将继续在该机组共烧生物质)。

In addition, the cuts to support for planned cofiring and coal-to-biomass conversion projects means GS E&R has cancelled its plans to cofire at its Donghae Electric Power plant, and KOEN will no longer convert its Yeongdong unit No. 2 from coal to biomass (it will continue to cofire biomass at the unit).

其他已经在其煤电厂中共烧木屑颗粒以帮助实现其RPS目标的公司将不会受到这些变化的影响,包括五家国有发电企业,这些企业一直是韩国木屑颗粒的主要消费者。因此,短期生物质需求应该是稳定的,但越来越多的人猜测韩国政府可能很快就会改变其政策并减少对现有煤炭生产商的支持。我们理解,政府期望在2019年中期决定是否遏制共烧。

Other companies that already cofire wood pellets in their coal plants to help meet their RPS targets will be unaffected by the changes, including the five state-owned generating companies that have been the main consumers of wood pellets in South Korea. Therefore, short-term biomass demand should be stable, but there has been mounting speculation that the South Korean government could soon change its policy and reduce support for existing cofirers, too. We understand that a decision is expected from the government about whether to curb cofiring in mid-2019.

日本 Japan

在日本,市场的发展与韩国不同,日本市场由上网电价(FIT)计划提供支持,该计划为生产可再生能源的企业提供20年的补贴。生物质已被证明非常受欢迎。到2017年3月,近12GW的生物质项目在FIT计划下获得批准,远远超过日本2030年最佳能源组合愿景中2.7-4GW设想的数量。

In Japan, the market has evolved differently from South Korea, and instead has been supported by a feed-in-tariff (FIT) scheme that provides a 20-year subsidy to firms producing renewable energy. Biomass, specifically under the general wood category, has proved hugely popular. By March 2017, almost 12 GW of biomass projects had been approved under the FIT scheme, far exceeding the quantity envisaged under Japan’s Best Energy Mix 2030 scenario of 2.7 to 4 GW.

显而易见,这种潜在的大规模生物质需求的增长引起了很多关注。全球的生物质生产商和用户正在紧盯亚洲,希望了解日益增长的市场如何影响现有的全球贸易流量。

The huge scale of this potential growth in biomass demand has, understandably, drawn a lot of attention. Biomass producers and users worldwide are looking keenly to Asia, and wish to understand how the growing market may impact existing global trade flows. 


然而亚洲生物质需求的前景远未确定,而各种各样的变数可能会限制其增长。Hawkins Wright为了确定新兴生物质市场的真实性质,在过去几个月来,进行了广泛的实地考察,实地考察,会议,定量和定性分析。这项研究为我们提供了独特的见解,这些见解发表在一份新的报告“2030年亚太生物质需求和供应的战略评估”中。
The outlook for Asian biomass demand is far from certain, however, and a wide range of variables could feasibly constrain its growth. Hawkins Wright therefore wanted to establish the true nature of the emerging biomass market. Over several months, we carried out extensive fieldwork, site visits, meetings, quantitative and qualitative analysis. This research has provided us with unique insights that are published in a new, multiclient report, “Strategic Assessment of Asian Pacific Biomass Demand and Supply out to 2030.”

该研究的一个重要部分是确定可用生物质的可行来源,以满足这一新市场的需求。我们不仅要确定需要多少生物质,还要确定其来源。
An important part of that study was identifying viable sources of available biomass that could meet the needs of this new market. We wanted to determine not just how much biomass will be needed, but where it will come from. 


目前,该地区的许多生物质需求来自燃煤电厂共烧木屑颗粒。但展望未来,新需求中越来越多的部分将由专用的生物质的电厂组成。这些专用设备将使用循环流化床锅炉,其比煤粉锅炉使用燃料更加灵活,因此不限于仅使用木屑颗粒。可以假设发电商因此将采购更多本地的、更便宜的替代生物质,如PKS或木片,但是,我们得出结论,木屑颗粒将继续发挥非常重要的作用。
Currently, a lot of the region’s biomass demand is from coal-fired power plants cofiring wood pellets. But looking ahead, a growing proportion of the new demand will consist of dedicated biomass plants. Those dedicated plants will utilize circulated fluidized bed boilers, which are much more fuel flexible then pulverized coal boilers, and therefore not restricted to using just wood pellets. It could be assumed that generators will therefore source more local, cheaper alternative biomass such as PKS or wood chips, however, we have concluded that wood pellets will continue to play a very important role.

我们看到木屑颗粒的巨大潜力可以满足不断增长的需求,我们预计很大一部分将来自北美供应商。促使我们预测的一个主要因素是日本和韩国的许多专用电厂将由债务资助的独立发电企业开发。如果一个项目开发商打算用债务为一个电力项目提供资金,那么贷方几乎肯定希望与一个可融资的交易对手达成一份安全的原料供应合同。相反,由母公司的资产负债表资助的项目,或者意图以相当低的费率使用煤炭与生物质共烧的公用事业公司,可能认为长期燃料合同不必要或太昂贵。

We see great potential for wood pellets to fulfill the growing demand, and we predict a large percentage will come from North American suppliers. One major factor fueling our prediction is that many of the dedicated plants in Japan and South Korea will be developed by IPPs funded by debt. If a project developer intends to finance a power project with debt, lenders will almost certainly want a secure feedstock supply contract to be agreed with a bankable counterparty. Conversely, a project financed by a parent company’s balance sheet, or a utility intending to cofire biomass with coal at fairly low rates, may deem a long-term fuel contract unnecessary or too expensive. 

 

根据我们的研究,我们已经确定了许多可以被视为可融资的公司,但目前没有一家公司在东南亚。因此,寻求可融资供应的亚洲买家可能需要从北美采购木屑颗粒,那里有值得信赖的大型生产商,拥有可靠的记录。
From our research, we have identified a number of companies that could be deemed bankable, but none are currently in Southeast Asia. Therefore, Asian buyers looking for bankable supply may need to source wood pellets from North America, where there are creditworthy, large-scale producers with a reliable track record. 

日本对加拿大西部的显示了高度兴趣。但在利用加拿大所有负担得起的供应时,日本人将开始寻找北美的其他地方。美国南部是一个明显的选择,因为它具有800万吨的安装工业级铭牌容量。美国木屑颗粒生产商Enviva已经与日本买家签订了合同。然而,具有挑战性的物流和高昂的运输成本将成为美国南方希望出口到亚洲的生产商的障碍,这些挑战能够克服多少将影响到能够获得多少供应。

That trend is already evident in the high interest that Japan has shown in western Canada. But at the point where all affordable supply in Canada is utilized, the Japanese will start to look elsewhere in North America. The U.S. South is an obvious choice, given its 8 MT of installed, industrial-grade nameplate capacity. Already, U.S. wood pellet producer Enviva has secured contracts with Japanese buyers. However, challenging logistics and high transport costs will be a barrier to producers in the U.S. South wanting to export to Asia, and how well those challenges can be overcome will influence how much supply can be secured. 

与此同时,一些规划专用生物质发电厂的韩国独立发电企业也可以按照与日本交易对手类似的思路。然而,五个韩国发电商不太可能改变他们的购买习惯。他们在一些燃煤站以低共烧率(3%至5%)共烧木屑颗粒,并有义务通过招标系统购买。该系统倾向于低成本供应,不重视安全性或质量,并帮助建立了东南亚供应市场,特别是越南在该地区的主导地位。2017年,越南占韩国进口量的62%,超过150万吨。

Meanwhile, some South Korean IPPs planning dedicated biomass power plants could follow a similar train of thought to their Japanese counterparties. However, it is unlikely the five South Korean gencos will change their purchasing habits. They cofire wood pellets at low rates (3 to 5 percent) at a few of their coal-fired stations, and are obligated to purchase via a tender system. This system has favored low-cost supply, with no importance put on security or quality, and has helped establish the SE Asian supply market, specifically Vietnam’s dominance in the region. Vietnam accounted for 62 percent of South Korea’s imports in 2017, sending over 1.5 MT. 

另一个可能鼓励木屑颗粒需求的因素是东南亚地区对生物质供应的高度竞争。 根据我们在纸浆和造纸行业的经验,很明显该地区的木片供应面临压力,虽然PKS资源丰富,但棕榈油厂的运输限制及其目前的使用将严重限制出口。

Another factor likely to encourage demand for wood pellets is the high level of competition for biomass supply in SE Asia. From our experience in the pulp and paper industry, it is clear that wood chip supply is under pressure in the region, and although there are abundant resources of PKS, transportation limitations and its current use by palm oil mills will severely limit exports. 


东南亚木屑颗粒供应商也将发挥作用,特别是一旦该地区出现更具流动性的现货市场,但并不是说不会与东南亚供应商签订长期合同。然而,在短期内,随着亚洲项目的大型管道努力获得融资,我们预计将与北美供应商签订更多合同。时间将证明东南亚的供应商是否能够展示出足够的信誉以增加其合同供应量。
There will be a role for SE Asian wood pellet suppliers, too, especially once a more liquid spot market emerges in the region, though that is not to say long-term contracts will not be signed with SE Asian suppliers. In the near-term, however, as the large pipeline of Asian projects work toward securing financing, we predict more contracts will be signed with North American suppliers. Time will show whether suppliers in SE Asia are able to demonstrate sufficient creditworthiness to increase their contracted supply volumes. 

 

来源:By Rachael Levinson

 

 

 

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