全球先进生物能源资讯 » 新闻资讯 » 国际资讯 » 正文行业新闻 国际资讯 专家学者 技术交流 政策法规 展会动态 

国际能源署(IEA):预测至2023年生物能源生产将增长Growth in bioenergy production

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2018-10-08  来源:全球先进生物能源资讯  浏览次数:1324
 

 

根据国际能源署(IEA)的最新市场预测,现代生物能源将成为2018-2023年间可再生能源的最大增长,仅用于电力部门生物能源在这5年期间将增加37吉瓦(GW),达到158吉瓦(GW)。

In its latest market forecast, the International Energy Agency predicts modern bioenergy will represent the biggest growth in renewable energy sources between 2018 and 2023, with bioenergy in the power sector alone increasing by 37 gigawatts (GW) during that five year period, reaching 158 GW.

国际能源署(IEA)于10月8日发布了《2018年可再生能源市场分析与预测报告》,指出在未来5年可再生能源将继续扩大,占全球能源消费增长的40%。 可再生能源的使用预计将在电力部门增长最快,并且到2023年,将占全球总发电量的近三分之一。然而,由于政策支持较弱和其他部署障碍,可再生能源的使用预计将在运输和供热方面扩大得更慢 。

The IEA released its Renewables 2018 market analysis and forecast report on Oct. 8, showing that renewables will continue to expand over the next five years, accounting for 40 percent of global energy consumption growth. The use of renewables is expected to increase most rapidly in the electricity sector, and will account for almost one-third of total world electricity generation in 2023. The use of renewables, however, is expected to expand far more slowly in the transportation and heat sectors due to weaker policy support and other barriers to deployment.

 

根据国际能源署(IEA)的报告,生物能源将在未来5年内成为可再生能源的最大来源,因为它在热能和运输领域得到广泛应用,而其他可再生能源目前在这些领域发挥的作用要小得多。

According to the IEA, bioenergy will remain the largest source of renewable energy over the next five years due to its widespread use in heat and transportation, sectors in which other renewables currently play a much smaller role.

 

 

现代生物能源是可再生能源领域被忽视的巨人,”国际能源署(IEA)执行董事 Fatih Birol说。 “生物能源在全球可再生能源消费总量中的份额目前约为50%,换句话说就相当于水电、风能、太阳能和所有其他可再生能源的总和。我们预计现代生物能源将继续引领该领域,并有巨大增长的前景。但正确的政策和严格的可持续性法规对于充分发挥其潜力至关重要。”

“Modern bioenergy is the overlooked giant of the renewable energy field,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. “Its share in the world’s total renewables consumption is about 50 percent today, in other words as much as hydro, wind, solar and all other renewables combined. We expect modern bioenergy will continue to lead the field, and has huge prospects for further growth. But the right policies and rigorous sustainability regulations will be essential to meet its full potential.”

 

国际能源署(IEA)发布的信息显示,现代生物能源(不包括传统的生物质能源)占去年消耗的可再生能源的一半,是太阳能光伏(PV)和风能总和的四倍。国际能源署表示,大多数现代生物能源用于最终能源消耗,以在建筑物和工业中提供热量。

Information released by the IEA shows that modern bioenergy, excluding the traditional use of biomass, was responsible for half of all renewable energy consumed last year, providing four times the contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind combined. The IEA said most modern bioenergy is used in final energy consumption to deliver heat in buildings and for industry.

国际能源署(IEA)报告显示,生物能源将成为未来五年可再生能源消费增长的最大来源。从2008-2023年,固体、液体和气体燃料形式的生物能源将占可再生能源消费增长的30%。国际能源署表示,这是因为热能和运输中大量使用生物能源,占80% 最终的能源消耗。

The IEA report shows bioenergy will be the largest source of growth in renewable consumption over the next five years. Bioenergy in the form of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels will account for 30 percent of the growth in renewable consumption from 2008 through 2023. The IEA said this is a result of the considerable use of bioenergy in heat and transport, which account for 80 percent of final energy consumption.

 

虽然生物能源仍将是2023年可再生能源的主要来源,但国际能源署(IEA)表示,其在可再生能源总量中的份额将略有下降,从2017年的50%下降到2023年的46%。

Although bioenergy will remain the predominant source of renewable energy in 2023, the IEA said its share of total renewable energy will decline slightly, from 50 percent in 2017 to 46 percent in 2023.

根据该报告,2023年可再生能源将提供近30%的电力需求,高于2017年的24%。在5年期间,可再生能源预计将满足全球70%以上的发电量增长。预计2023年生物能源将满足全球约3%的电力需求。

According to the report, renewables will provide almost 30 percent of power demand in 2023, up from 24 percent in 2017. During the five-year period, renewables are forecast to meet more than 70 percent of global electricity generation growth. Bioenergy is expected to meet approximately 3 percent of global electricity demand in 2023.

 

预计未来5年生物能源发电量将增加37吉瓦,到2023年达到158吉瓦。国际能源署(IEA)表示,该预测已从去年上调,反映中国前景更加乐观,预计中国将占全球生物能源的37% 。尽管国际能源署(IEA)表示英国和荷兰仍是主要市场,但欧盟对生物能源的预测已经下调。虽然该报告指出生物能源并未迅速扩展到许多新市场,墨西哥和土耳其并未表现出部署增长的迹象。

Bioenergy power capacity is expected to increase by 37 GW over the next five years, reaching 158 GW in 2023. The IEA said the forecast has been revised up from last year to reflect a more optimistic outlook for China, which is expected to account for 37 percent of global bioenergy. The forecast for bioenergy in the European union has been lowered, although the IEA said the U.K. and Netherlands remain major markets. While the report states that bioenergy is not expanding rapidly into many new markets, it does not that Mexico and Turkey are showing signs of growing deployment.  

 

该报告指出,生物能源在未来5年可能增加19吉瓦的容量,主要增加50%。包括中国潜在的更高能源废物和生物质热电联产部署,以及加强印度对农业废弃物利用和巴西增加甘蔗渣发电的政策支持。

The report indicates that an accelerated cast for bioenergy shows potential for an additional 19 GW of capacity over the next five-years, a 50 percent increase on the main case. The accelerated case highlights potential higher energy-from-waste and biomass cogeneration deployment in China, along with enhanced policy support in India for the utilization of agricultural residues and increased bagasse electricity generation in Brazil.

在供热领域,国际能源署(IEA)指出,2017年现代生物能源产生了近70%的直接可再生热量,目前满足工业用热需求的8%,主要是生产生物质废物和残留物的部门。

In the heat sector, the IEA notes that modern bioenergy produced almost 70 percent of direct renewable heat in 2017 and currently meets 8 percent of industrial heat demand, mostly in sectors that produce biomass waste and residues.

 

预计未来5年工业部门对生物能源的消费将增长13%。根据国际能源署(IEA)的报告,目前生物能源在水泥、糖和乙醇工业中尚未开发的潜力也很重要。如果主要的水泥生产国为废物管理引入强有力的政策,国际能源署(IEA)预测工业部门的生物能源使用量可进一步增加13%。

The consumption of bioenergy by the industrial sector is expected to grow 13 percent over the next five years. According to the IEA, there is currently significant untapped potential to increase bioenergy use in the cement, sugar and ethanol industries. If key cement-producing countries were to introduce robust frameworks for waste management, the IEA predicts the use of bioenergy in the industrial sector could be further increased by an additional 13 percent.

在建筑物中,国际能源署(IEA)预测到2023年生物能源的使用将增长8%。在住宅领域,报告显示欧盟占全球生物能源消费的54%。意大利领导颗粒炉市场,而颗粒锅炉几乎占德国市场的一半。国际能源署(IEA)表示,美国仍然是建筑行业最大的生物能源消费者。

In buildings, the IEA predicts bioenergy use will grow by 8 percent through 2023. In the residential sector, the report shows the European union accounts for 54 percent of global bioenergy consumption. Italy leads the pellet stove market, while pellet boilers made up almost half the market in Germany. The IEA said the U.S. remains the largest single consumer of bioenergy in the buildings sector.

 

交通运输部门的可再生能源渗透率最低,可再生能源的比例预计将从2017年的3.4%增长到2023年的3.8%。

The transportation sector has the lowest penetration of renewables, with the share of renewables expected to grow from 3.4 percent in 2017 to 3.8 percent in 2023.

 

到2023年,预计5年内生物燃料产量将增加15%,达到1650亿升(435.9亿加仑)。到2023年,预计生物燃料将占交通运输行业可再生能源总量的近90%。 燃料乙醇预计占生物燃料产量增长的三分之二,生物柴油和加氢处理植物油占其余部分。

Biofuel production over the five-year period is expected to increase 15 percent, reaching 165 billion liters (43.59 billion gallons) by 2023. By 2023, biofuels are expected to account for nearly 90 percent of total renewables in the transportation sector. Fuel ethanol is expected to make up two-thirds of biofuel production growth, with biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil making up the remainder.

亚洲国家占未来5年生物燃料产量增长的大部分,国际能源署(IEA)预测中国、印度和东南亚国家联盟成员国占全球生物燃料生产扩张的一半。拉丁美洲将增长45%,特别是巴西。

Asian countries account for the majority of the growth in biofuel output over the next five years, with the IEA predicting China, India and member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations representing half of the global expansion in biofuel production. Latin America will be responsible for an additional 45 percent of that growth, particularly Brazil.

 

在有利的市场和政策条件下,国际能源署(IEA)表示,未来5年生物燃料的增长可能会更加显着,达到近2060亿升的产量。

Under favorable market and policy conditions, the IEA said the growth in biofuels could be even more significant over the next five years, reaching nearly 206 billion liters of production.

 

来源:Biomass Magazine 

By:Erin Voegele

 

 

 

 

本文关键字:
 
推荐图文
推荐新闻资讯
最新文章