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智利:新兴的颗粒行业 AN EMERGING PELLET SECTOR

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2018-09-03  来源:全球先进生物能源资讯  浏览次数:1738

 

FutureMetrics

FutureMetrics开发了一个综合模型,用于估算生产和运输工业木屑颗粒到外国港口的成本。成本估算的重要驱动因素之一是用于收获和运输林产品以及将颗粒运输到终端的柴油燃料的成本。通过使用石油价格的预测以及颗粒供应链的其他组成部分的已知或预期值,该模型可用于估算生产和交付颗粒的未来成本。

FutureMetrics has developed a comprehensive model for estimating the cost to produce and ship industrial wood pellets to a foreign port. One of the significant drivers of the cost estimate is the cost of the diesel fuel used in the harvest and transport of forest products and the transport of pellets to the shipping terminal. Using forecasts for petroleum prices and known or expected values for other components of the supply chain for pellets, the model can be used to estimate the future costs to produce and deliver pellets.

 

交付的颗粒历史价格

Delivered Pellet Historical Prices

 

FutureMetrics根据国际贸易数据估算了木屑颗粒的历史交付价格(CIF)。有关进口颗粒的价值和数量的数据可以深入了解买家为燃料支付的价格。由于大多数颗粒的国际贸易都是长期合同,因此这些价格反映了具有竞争力的长期市场清算价值。
FutureMetrics has estimated the historical delivered (CIF) price of wood pellets from international trade data. Data on the value and quantity of imported pellets gives insight into the prices that buyers are paying for the fuel. Because most of the international trade of pellets is under long-term contracts, those prices reflect a competitive, long-run, market-clearing value.

现货价格受短期供需失衡的影响。如果市场处于供应过剩的状态,价格就会下跌。 如果市场处于需求过剩状态,价格上涨。长期承购协议价格基于颗粒燃料的相互可持续的价值。这些价格不受短期供需失衡的影响。

The spot price is influenced by short-term supply and demand imbalances.  If the market is in a state of excess supply, prices fall. If the market in a state of excess demand, prices rise. Long-term offtake agreement prices are based on mutually sustainable values for the pellet fuel. Those prices are unaffected by short-term supply and demand imbalances. 

FutureMetrics估算了几个常见目的地的CIF价格,包括ARA和日本。英国CIF的估计数如图1所示。请注意,加权平均值考虑了出口国的市场份额。美国、加拿大和巴尔干国家主导了进口到英国的颗粒比例。6月份的最新数据显示,美国占英国市场的58.4%,加拿大占19.6%,巴尔干国家约占19.8%,还有来自俄罗斯的少量。

FutureMetrics has estimated CIF prices for several common destinations, including ARA and Japan. The estimates for CIF U.K. are in Figure 1.  Note that the weighted average considers the market share of the exporting countries. The U.S., Canada and the Balkan states dominate the share of pellets imported into the U.K. The most recent data for June shows that the U.S. has 58.4 percent of the U.K. market, with Canada having 19.6 percent, the Balkan states about 19.8 percent, with the small remainder from Russia.  


由于贸易数据包括以现货价格进口的颗粒,俄罗斯这样几乎完全在现货交易的低产量出口商将表现出更高的价格波动性。 三个月均线和趋势平缓了大部分波动。 在过去的几年中,根据这一分析,交付给英国的平均长期承购价格介于每吨180-190美元之间。
Since the trade data includes pellets imported at spot prices, lower-volume exporters such as Russia, which has traded almost entirely on spot, will exhibit higher price volatility. The three-month moving average and the trend smooth out most of that volatility.  Over the past several years, based in this analysis, the average long-term offtake price delivered to the U.K. has been between $180 and $190 per metric ton (MT).  

 

该模型

The Model

该模型的目标是利用颗粒的估计交付价格,然后根据通常预测的宏观经济参数预测未来价格。

The goal of the model is to replicate the estimated delivered price of pellets, and then, based on commonly forecast macroeconomic parameters, forecast future prices. 


该分析假设该市场不处于供应过剩或需求过剩的状态。在短期内,可能存在影响现货价格的供需失衡。 然而,生产和交付颗粒的内在成本,包括典型的利润率,将决定长期供应合同的市场价格。
The analysis assumes that that market is not in a condition of excess supply or demand.  In the short-run, there may be a supply and demand imbalance that would impact spot prices. However, the intrinsic costs of producing and delivering pellets, including typical profit margins, will set the market prices for long-run supply contracts.


该方法涉及颗粒成本的每个主要组成部分开发独立的子模型,即颗粒厂的木材成本,颗粒厂转换成本(不包括木材成本)加边际,从工厂到港口和港口存储的内陆运输和装载成本和运费。
The methodology involves developing independent submodels for each of the main components of pellet costs, which are wood costs delivered to the pellet mill, pellet mill conversion costs (excluding wood costs) plus margin, inland transportation from the mill to the port and port storage and loading costs, and shipping. 

 

木材成本模型从立木成本开始,然后考虑收获和交付的设备,劳动力和卡车运输。 在模型中,输入了从树林到高速公路的四类道路上行驶的距离。柴油燃料的使用和成本是交付木材总成本的很大一部分。如果颗粒厂只使用锯木厂残留物,那么该模型可以说明锯木厂已经吸收了大部分收获和圆木运输成本。
The wood cost model begins with stumpage cost and then accounts for equipment, labor and trucking for harvest and delivery. Within the model are inputs for distance traveled on four classes of roads, from in-woods to highway. The use and cost of diesel fuel is a large component of the total cost of delivered wood. If the pellet mill uses only sawmill residuals, the model accounts for the fact that the sawmill has absorbed most of the harvest and roundwood delivery costs.

 

转换成本是将进入的纤维转化为木屑颗粒的成本。利润是基于每吨EBITDA的历史价值。
Conversion costs are the costs to take incoming fiber and converting it into wood pellets. The margin is based on historic values for EBITDA per MT.

 

对于从工厂到港口的内陆运输,每吨/公里的成本是根据几个输入值计算的。存储和装载成本基于典型费率以及存储和装船基础设施的摊销成本。
For inland transportation from the mill to the port, costs per MT-kilometer are calculated based on several inputs. Storage and loading costs are based on typical rates and the amortized cost of the storage and ship loading infrastructure.

为了估算运输成本,来自Argus生物质市场报告,FutureMetrics使用了来自五条不同路线和两种船舶尺寸的超过200周的颗粒运费,并根据油价、行驶距离、船舶尺寸、运输和装载/进行了回归分析/ 卸载时间,以及其他一些参数。回归输出提供了一组用于估算长期运输成本的稳健系数。
To estimate shipping costs, from the Argus Biomass Market Report, FutureMetrics used over 200 weeks of pellet freight rates from five different routes and two vessel sizes, and performed a regression analysis based on oil prices, distances traveled, vessel sizes, transit and loading/unloading time, and a few other parameters. The regression output provides a robust set of coefficients for estimating long-term shipping costs.  

 

FutureMetrics根据2020年1月1日国际海事组织实施的新规,调整了每吨运费。调整基于行进的距离,因此随着距离的增加,每吨的成本增加。
FutureMetrics has added an adjustment to the per-MT shipping rates based on the Jan. 1, 2020, implementation of the International Maritime Organization sulfur cap on emissions from shipping.  The adjustment is based on distance traveled, and thus the increased cost per MT increases with longer distances. 

 

还有其他一些输入值,包括一般成本通胀率。
There are several other inputs including general cost inflation rates.

FutureMetrics估计了模型关键输入值的潜在可变性,并开发了这些输入值的概率分布。这允许进行一系列蒙特卡罗模拟。模拟产生的价格预测范围如图2所示,它使用了几个程式化的假设。每个颗粒厂的输入将是不同的和独特的。

FutureMetrics has estimated the potential variability of the critical inputs to the model and has developed probability distributions for those inputs. That allows for a series of Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations yield ranges for the price forecasts that are shown in Figure 2, which uses several stylized assumptions. The inputs for each pellet mill will be different and unique.

 

分析结果

Results of the Analysis

每个季度的估计CIF价格基于模拟产生的概率分布。例如,对于从美国东南部到英国伊明汉姆的2018第四季度颗粒,通过45,000吨船舶,图3中显示了来自10,000次模拟相互作用的可能CIF价格的分布。

Each quarter’s estimated CIF price is based on a probability distribution produced by the simulation. For example, for quarter four 2018 pellets shipped from the U.S. Southeast to Immingham, U.K., on a 45,000-MT vessel, the distribution of possible CIF prices from 10,000 interactions of the simulation is shown in Figure 3.  


颗粒原料的运输距离对使用圆木或木材碎片的颗粒厂的木材交付成本具有强烈影响。木材的交付成本是生产颗粒总成本中最具影响力的因素。绿色条表示生产者能够以较低或较高的经营现金流利润率缓冲外部成本变化。蓝色条显示生产者如何提高工厂效率(例如,更一致的操作和输出),然后他们可以降低价格,但保持其利润。
Transport distances for the pellet feedstock have a strong impact on the delivered cost of wood to a pellet mill that uses roundwood or in-woods chips. The delivered cost of wood is the most influential factor in the total cost of producing pellets. The green bar gives some indication of the ability of the producer to buffer external cost changes with a lower or higher operating cash flow margin. The blue bar shows how if the producer can improve plant efficiency (for example, more consistent operation and output) then they can lower the price, but maintain their margin.  

 

除非油价不遵循环境影响评估的上行轨迹,而且一般成本通胀率低于本例中的假设,或者生产者可以提高转换成本或接受每吨的较低EBITDA,工业木屑颗粒的交付成本很可能到2030年,每吨超过250美元。
Unless oil prices do not follow the upward trajectory forecast by the EIA and general cost inflation rates are below the assumption in this example, or producers can improve conversion costs or accept a lower EBITDA per MT, the delivered cost of industrial wood pellets is likely to be above $250 per MT by 2030.

 

来源:Biomass Magazine 

By:William Strauss 

 

 

 

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